Sonia-Maya magic chalega kya?

But reality is not so simple. For starters, what is to prevent the BJP from extending support to save Mulayam’s government? Why should Mayawati close her option of fighting the UP elections on her own? As head of a growing party, she is not aiming for just a Cabinet berth. Kanshi Ram had refused the offer of a home ministership during the Narasimha Rao era. When Rao forged an alliance with Ram in the mid-90s, the BSP vote was transferred to the Congress but the Congress could not transfer its vote to the BSP.

Mayawati knows only too well that the Congress will gain at her expense. Her votebank came from the Congress and can go back to it. However suppliant she may seem today, she is not likely to align with the party. That could spell political suicide for her. For the Congress, however, Mayawati is the way to the Dalit heart. Once Dalits come to the party, Muslims would flock to its side and upper castes will follow. The party could then take off.

The Manmohan ministry may look stable today but with maverick regional players, one can never tell. The fact is that in the next round, the Congress may find it tough going in the South. In Tamil Nadu, it will have to remain content to be the DMK’s junior partner in the 2006 polls. In Karnataka, either Deve Gowda will nibble away at the Congress or there could be fresh elections in a state where the BJP has a significant presence. The Congress is down and out in Kerala despite a change of guard there. In Maharashtra, the NCP has overtaken it although much depends on Sharad Pawar’s health. In Andhra, it will have to contend with regional forces like the TDP and the TRS. In West Bengal, Congress prospects are not too bright, despite the PM’s “casual” offer to Mamata to join his Cabinet, which she turned down. The Congress will also face problems in Punjab.

This leaves the states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Orissa, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh — accounting for 130 seats — where the Congress can improve. But its gains would be offset by the losses in the south and its tally would remain more or less what it is at present. Unless, of course, things start to move in UP and Bihar. Without a quantum jump in UP, Congress revival will remain elusive. That is why the Congress is contesting 80 seats in Bihar. It may not be able to take a big leap this time but it is trying to prevent its own decimation. It hopes to safeguard its government in New Delhi and yet retain its cadre in Bihar, which would have scattered had it agreed to take the 25 seats Laloo was offering. In UP, it has made up its mind to take on Mulayam. But it will have to do more than hope for an alliance with Mayawati. Salman Khurshid has called for a brainstorming session of party workers in Chitrakoot later this month and is hoping to have Rahul Gandhi attend it. So far he, as indeed his mother, have concentrated on their constituencies.

Sonia Gandhi said not long ago that she thinks about the revival of the Congress in UP, day and night. The people here are looking at the Congress with new eyes but the party needs to put new faces in place at all levels. It will need to take up issues that are important to the voter and carry out agitational programmes, something it has not done for decades. There are no short cuts to getting UP back.