Sleepless Mulayam on the brink, verdict on his fate today

RLD leader Ajit Singh has suddenly emerged as the man who holds the key to the fate of the government, if the verdict goes against the 40 BSP MLAs who quit Mayawati’s party and joined the SP.

If they are disqualified, Mulayam Singh’s party will lose its majority, and would need the support of the RLD to survive.

The Congress has been wooing Ajit Singh but he appears to have pitched his demands quite high. He would like a Cabinet post, say sources, which the Congress might give him but it cannot be done overnight; he would like assurances on the creation of a Harit Pradesh from the western part of UP, among other things. Although some of his 16 MLAs are unhappy with the SP, which has been losing ground, Ajit Singh would calculate politically the pros and cons of delinking from Mulayam and aligning with the Congress which does not have much in its kitty.

It is unlikely that Mayawati, who is emerging as the frontrunner in the state, would like to tie up with any party in a pre-poll alliance.

The corridors of power were agog about the many imponderables surrounding the long awaited judgement. How will the judgement go; what will the Governor do and how much time he will give to Mulayam Singh Yadav to prove his majority; what will Ajit Singh do; will Mulayam Singh manage to survive as many believe he might with the help of allies or friends not so visible; will the BJP come to his rescue indirectly with some of its legislators abstaining in a vote of confidence; and if he does manage to ride the storm, will he himself recommend the dissolution of the state assembly and advance the elections otherwise going to the polls in Jan 2007 so that he can remain the caretaker CM?

The battle between the Congress and the SP is hotting up, as the telephone tapping of SP leader Amar Singh resonated in Parliament and the Home Minister told members that the issue could be referred to the Ethics Committee. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court directed the electronic and print media not to publish the contents of the CD with Amar Singh’s alleged conversations with personalities in Bollywood, industry, and politics.

If 40 erstwhile BSP MLAs, who joined the SP, get disqualified, the strength of the House will come down to 363 necessitating Mulayam Singh to rustle up the support of 182 MLAs to prove his majority.

The SP has 194 MLAs (including the 40 BSP rebels) and the support of two of CPM and another two of Lok Tantrik Congress. There are 12 independents and five BJP MLAs (thrown out of the party) who are supporting the SP. Clearly, the SP will need the support of Ajit Singh’s RLD, which is part of the Mulayam government today. And if that support is not forthcoming, many of the independents, some of whom have criminal cases and need the protection of whoever is in power, may also ditch Mulayam.

UP watchers say that Mulayam has many “invisible friends” in the BJP and even though the party will not openly come to his aid—if BJP functionaries are to be believed—there are ways and ways of getting them to absent themselves to get the arithmetic right for Mulayam.

But this may not be so easy with the ascent of Rajnath Singh as BJP chief who is from UP. Even indirect help to Mulayam would be laid at this doorstep, particularly as he has enjoyed warm relations with both Mulayam and Amar Singh. If the MLAs defy his line, it would be said that his writ does not run in the party in his own state, provoking his detractors to unsheath their knives.

There is a view that Mulayam may decide to strike, even if he gets the numbers right. He has had a running battle going on with the UP governor who recently returned the CM’s recommendation to appoint a judge who had given a pro-SP verdict on the eve of his retirement as the Chief Information Officer.

Mulayam would like to face the forthcoming state elections as CM and not under President Rule. But the trouble is that he would have to contend with Ajit Singh. More so, if he bails him out and the RLD chief is reportedly against advancing elections.