Shia bloc tops Iraq elections, Kurds come second

A powerful Kurdish alliance came second with 25 percent, while a grouping led by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, a secular Shia, came third with nearly 14 per cent.

Few Sunni Arabs took part in the Jan. 30 voting, which means the minority that has traditionally ruled modern Iraq and held a privileged position under Saddam, a Sunni, will have just a handful of National Assembly seats and little political clout.

That could stoke the insurgency in Iraq which is being fought mainly by Sunni Arab guerrillas who want to drive out US-led troops and overthrow the American-backed government.

The commission said 8.55 million Iraqis, or 58 per cent of registered voters, cast ballots in the Jan. 30 poll, Iraq’s first multi-party election for half a century. The number of valid votes was around 8.45 million.

The national vote was for a 275-member National Assembly that must agree on a president and two vice-presidents by a two-thirds majority. Those three officials will then agree on a prime minister and cabinet, and their choices must be approved by a majority in the assembly.

Sunni Arab turnout was low. Only two percent of eligible voters in the Sunni-dominated Anbar province cast ballots, and only 29 percent in the mainly Sunni Salahadin province. Sunnis make up about 20 percent of Iraq’s 27 million people.

The main Sunni Arab group in the assembly will probably be a bloc led by President Ghazi al-Yawar, although it is set to have only around five seats. A secular party led by Sunni elder statesmen Adnan Pachachi looked unlikely to win any seats.

‘‘The image of Iraq that these results suggest is not real. That is obvious,’’ Pachachi told Reuters.

In another sign of tensions ahead, Kurds in the ethnically mixed city of Kirkuk erupted in celebrations after results showed them well ahead in the provincial vote —— an outcome that will anger Arabs and Turkmen, who also lay claim to the city.

With no bloc gaining dominance on its own, there has already been furious horse-trading to try to strike deals. The United Iraqi Alliance insists that one of its candidates —— probably current Finance Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi or Vice President Ibrahim Jaafari —— be appointed prime minister. The Kurds want their candidate, Jalal Talabani, to be president or prime minister. Under one scenario, the two blocs could do a deal with a Shia candidate getting the prime minister’s job and Talabani the presidency. But Allawi, who visited Kurdistan on Saturday and met Talabani, may also try to form alliances to improve his chances. If he can make a deal with the Kurds and persuade some of the Shia alliance to break away, he may be able to keep his job.

Even if Sunni Arabs are largely shut out of government, they could still potentially veto the new Iraqi constitution due to be written this year, causing political deadlock. One of the main tasks of the National Assembly is to oversee the drafting of a constitution which must be approved by a referendum.

Sunni insurgents who have relentlessly attacked US troops, Iraqi security forces and officials have also turned their violence on Shias, raising fears of sectarian civil war.

Iraq has announced it will close its land borders from Thursday to try to prevent a flood of foreign pilgrims arriving for Ashura, one of the holiest events in the Shia calendar, when millions of people converge on shrines in Iraq.

A car bomb exploded near an Iraqi security forces checkpoint on the road between Hilla and Kerbala in a mainly Shia area south of Baghdad on Sunday, killing at least one person. Suicide bombers attacked pilgrims in Baghdad and Kerbala last year, killing 171 people, and Ashura could be a flashpoint again this year, especially if the poll results fuel tension.

The bodies of two men who worked with Allawi’s party were found in a rebellious district of Baghdad on Sunday. In the northwest of the capital, gunmen assassinated two senior Iraqi army officers and their driver. —Reuters

Road to a government

• After three days, the election results will be certified as long as no complaints about the tally are upheld.

• A 275-member National Assembly will be formed, with its composition determined by the vote share

• The assembly will elect a presidency council consisting of a president and two deputies. The council must have the backing of two thirds of the assembly, or 184 members

• The three-person council will then elect a prime minister and a cabinet within two weeks. The decision must be unanimous

• The prime minister and cabinet will then seek approval from the National Assembly in a single vote of confidence

• The National Assembly will draw up a draft constitution for Iraq by Aug. 15, 2005. The constitution must be presented to the Iraqi people for approval in a referendum to be held no later than Oct. 15, 2005

• If it is approved, a general election will be held by Dec. 15, 2005, and the government will take office before the end of the year

• If it is rejected, the National Assembly will be dissolved and an election for a new assembly will take place by Dec. 15, 2005.