Rebels set to gatecrash Maharashtra party

It is not possible for the pollsters as well as the voters to separate the official Congress-NCP candidate from the rebel. That is why almost all the opinion polls give the Congress-led front a clear majority. What we are witnessing, in fact, is a fight of Congress versus rebel Congress versus NCP versus the rebel NCP.

In the last election, there were 288 official Congress nominees against 288 NCP nominees. The Pawar-led split had facilitated the rebellion. So in effect, all the official NCP candidates were recognised rebels of sorts. Pawar’s party could absorb all the aspirants, who could not have got the Congress tickets. The NCP, therefore, could secure the votes of those who were loyal to that local (rebel) leader as well as the so-called anti-Congress votes, which otherwise could have gone to the Sena-BJP. Thus, the intra-party rebellion was contained.

In this election, when the Congress and the NCP distributed among themselves the 288 seats (164+124 approximately), they left huge political space for the aspirants from both the camps. For instance, those who were number two in the 1999 election as well as those who had slogged in the party for the last five years, hoping for a ticket, were disheartened to see that they were not on the list. Many of them indeed have a chance to win in the election.

They did not want to wait for the next election and chose to try their luck and have filed their nomination. From the voter’s point of view, he is voting a Congress candidate, albeit a non-official one. Even from the pollster’s perspective, the count goes in favour of the Congress-led front, because neither the voter nor the pollster has any mechanism to distinguish the official candidate from the rebel. Moreover, all the polls were conducted before the names of the candidates were announced and the rebellion in the ranks exploded.

By and large, the Shiv Sena used to be free from such rebellions. The terror within the organisation took care of the disgruntled elements. The Sena network is based on loyalty to Balasaheb Thackeray and a chain of “karyakartas”. Sometimes, a “karyakarta” is merely an euphemism for a local strongman. This karyakarta-strongman system worked to keep not only the disgruntled elements in check but also the leaders who could have developed unwanted and unwarranted ambitions. Even the chief ministers Manohar Joshi and Narayan Rane had to obey the diktats of the Boss. The question of internal democracy did not arise and the rebellion was unthinkable.

But that network began to collapse after Uddhav Thackeray took over as the executive president of the Sena. Uddhav, the son, is seen as an upstart and Raj, the nephew, is seen as a natural successor of the Sena legacy. This is because Raj has worked for nearly two decades among the youth, students and regular Sena workers. The entire Raj-Sena is feeling that it has been totally marginalised. His supporters may not formaly rebel but can cause enough damage to the Sena prospects and in turn to the alliance. Similarly, Narayan Rane, who is a firebrand and hyperactive leader of the Sena, is also not happy. It is natural for him to expect to be made Chief Minister, in case of the alliance victory, since his term had come to an abrupt end in 1999. It was at the BJP’s behest that the Sena-BJP government had decided to go for an early election in 1999. Rane was the chief minister then and was hurt, but obeyed the order. Now he wants to be made chief minister again. But he feels that in case of the Sena-BJP victory, Uddhav could be the choice. So even Rane is upset. Many senior leaders, who were ministers, MPs, MLAs for long years have been denied tickets and hence there is considerable resentment in the Sena which could destabilise their own candidates, thereby jeopardising the alliance prospects.

The BJP, too, is experiencing now what has been common for the Congress for all these years. Various factions of the BJP are out with their swords, spears and trishuls to teach a lesson to the rival faction. The BJP is contesting 117 and the Sena 171. If the internal squabbles in the Sena and the BJP further spread and also the conflicts within the alliance, then the results would be totally unpredictable. Indeed, not a single party or a candidate or a pollster is able to gauge mood of the electorate because, every rebel, every faction, every activist is working not for the party, but for a faction or an individual. In every part of the state the issues differ, the challenges differ and the faction-fights differ.

Therefore, there are 288 separate elections rather than one election in Maharashtra. And the shape of the government will be decided, not by the parties but by rebels who have become the real jokers in the pack.