The Left and Bengal,2011

After Mandate 2009,a post-mortem thesis has emerged. The Congress won because of its focus on aam aadmi,because India wasn't shining everywhere,and because NREGS and farmers' debt relief found resonance.

After Mandate 2009,a post-mortem thesis has emerged. The Congress won because of its focus on aam aadmi,because India wasn’t shining everywhere,and because NREGS and farmers’ debt relief found resonance.

Growth cannot bypass large chunks of society and development must have a heart. This thesis cannot be questioned logically; it can be questioned empirically. But let’s leave empirical questioning aside and accept that this can be a logical proposition. Once this logical proposition is accepted,the ensuing development emphasis on public expenditure and social and rural sectors follow.

Contrast this with reactions to the West Bengal mandate. There,too,one can argue BPL,AAY cards and NREGS haven’t delivered and industrialisation and land acquisition drove roughshod over people’s wishes,in addition to West Bengal not performing that well on any economic indicators. Muslim issues apart,there were development issue as well. In West Bengal,the Trinamool Congress hasn’t of course won yet in the Assembly elections. That’s one and a half years away. There is no reason why present trends should be extrapolated to 2011. However,if they are,Trinamool and Congress should win a two-thirds majority in the Assembly elections.

Just as the Central mandate is being interpreted as a pro-poor mandate for the Congress,the anti-Left swing in Bengal should therefore also be interpreted as a pro-poor mandate in favour of the Trinamool,though we aren’t talking about the Assembly elections yet. However,notice that reactions are more charitable towards the Congress and more skeptical vis-à-vis the Trinamool. That is,a logical proposition accepted for the Congress isn’t automatically accepted for the Trinamool. Besides,the latter has a credibility problem. Is that because the UPA has a track record for five years and the Trinamool has nothing to show? Is that because the Congress manifesto is more credible than Trinamool’s? Is it because the Trinamool is personalised in the form of Mamata Banerjee and she is cast in the classic opposition mode and is not believable in governance mode? Or is it because in urban and industrial circles,the development issues of West Bengal have been reduced to Nano? Euphoria about the demise of Left at the Centre has also built in an expected demise in the West Bengal elections in 2011. That’s by no means axiomatic. The Left Front in Bengal isn’t going to sit around twiddling its thumbs for two years. And so far as the Trinamool-Congress alliance is concerned,it still doesn’t offer a credible development alternative. In all probability,participating in the government in Delhi hinders rather than helps that Trinamool cause.

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Bibek Debroy

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