Defensive,safe play is incompatible with Twenty20 success

Typically then,teams must seek to play nine batsmen (okay,seven batsmen and two others who can get runs in the last three overs) and six bowlers. It means you must play three all-rounders,your wicket-keeper must bat in the top six and one of those batsmen must be good enough to bowl 3-4 overs. The conditions in the West Indies would determine whether teams with seam bowling all-rounders have a better chance or others,notably from the sub-continent,who have a greater preponderance of slow bowlers.

For various reasons,two teams catch the eye. Pakistan cricket may be in turmoil but that has rarely been an indicator of how they will play. And T20 is just down their alley. It rewards instinct,freedom and fearlessness and that has been the hallmark of Pakistan cricket. I suspect that the strength of the Pakistan team diminishes as the duration of the game rises but in T20,they will always look balanced. They have a spin bowling all-rounder in Afridi,a seam bowling all-rounder in Razzak (both of whom can be match winners with the bat) and a wicket-keeper who opens the batting. Perfect for balance. I believe the key for them is the quality of the top five batsmen and Pakistan’s fortunes may well be determined by how well those five play.

Australia on the other hand,slot in among the third tier of teams,placed below Bangladesh at No 9. It is ironical that theirs are the players most valued in the IPL and in England but collectively,they have been shocking so far! But they have far too much going their way this year and should be a very decent bet to go all the way. A top six of Warner,Watson,Clarke,Hussey,White and Haddin means there is a spinner,a seamer and a wicket-keeper already taken care of. Johnson,Hauritz,Nannes and Tait (surely Bollinger must be in there) means four bowlers,two of whom can bat decently. More critically,there is some pace there which,as the IPL has shown,is back in fashion. It means No 7 can be a floater and anyone can play.

India will await the return to form of Yuvraj Singh. If he is in form,India have a serious chance. There is a lot of batting but without Yuvraj in form it looks a touch incomplete. And while India have a keeper in the top six,all their batsmen bowl slow which suggests they are a team better suited for slightly sluggish pitches. The big weakness is the absence of a seam bowling all-rounder who could bowl the middle overs and bat at say,No 7. And so India must decide whether to play three seamers or get by with two and play both Pathan and Jadeja or indeed,Chawla.

But seriously,any of those three or even Sri Lanka,South Africa,England or the West Indies could go all the way. And don’t be surprised if Bangladesh create a little upset somewhere. That group — Pakistan,Bangladesh and Australia — is the one to watch in the first week.

In India,though,the tournament faces another threat. By the 10th of May,Lalit Modi will have emerged with his defence and we will know then if people want to watch the news or the cricket. Or maybe,the news till 7pm and cricket thereafter!