Prez Musharraf, the sequel

The PPP wanted to be 8216;used8217; because it can8217;t see itself ruling Pakistan with almost zero governability in the post-Musharraf period. It thought Musharraf would diversify his reliance on the conservative Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam, or PMLQ. It also hoped to persuade the traditionally PPP-hating army to allow Benazir Bhutto to lead Pakistan into the 8216;liberal8217; opening, supported by the United States. But the ruling PMLQ is an old army-backed, PPP-hating entity that will not let Musharraf convert Pakistan into a liberal democratic state.

The second wave is the 8216;constitutional8217; one led by Pakistan8217;s lawyers who have always dreamed of getting rid of the Pakistan army as the country8217;s presiding succubus. The lawyers8217; movement is based on fear and loathing of the army that doesn8217;t allow Pakistan to become internally sovereign and democratic. The lawyers8217; community leads the Pakistani people in that it also hates the US as an interfering power that protects and supports Musharraf and keeps the Pakistan8217;s people from asserting their will. The hatred of America comes from a variety of quarters, a mix of secular-liberal and religious-Islamist elements.

The third wave comes from Al-Qaeda, headquartered in Pakistan8217;s Tribal Areas and spreading its control into the settled areas under normal municipal law. Al-Qaeda has declared war on General Musharraf as an ally of the US and an enemy of Islam and the people of Pakistan. The three waves feed on one another. The parliamentary opposition minus the PPP is practising the politics of denial vis-a-vis Al-Qaeda. The Supreme Court headed by a chief justice whom Musharraf tried unsuccessfully to fire from his job gave evidence of relying on the third wave of Al-Qaeda when it returned Islamabad8217;s Lal Masjid Red Mosque to its Al-Qaeda proteges this week.

Like 8216;literalist8217; Muslims all over the world, Pakistanis have taken a textualist approach to the constitution. If approached from the textualist angle, Musharraf can wear his uniform while being re-elected on October 6. But the lawyers and politicians want the Supreme Court to look at the issue of a general trying to get himself elected twice from the same parliament in light of the 8216;spirit8217;, rather than the 8216;text8217;, of the constitution. The lawyers no longer accept the dictum that the court8217;s verdict will prevail even if it is against their stance. Judged from the conduct of the 8216;three waves8217; and the Musharraf government in the past weeks, no one unconditionally recognises the Supreme Court8217;s authority.

The Supreme Court gives evidence of being affected by the 8216;public mood8217;. It vacillates between the 8216;people8217; and the 8216;president8217; according to the seesaw of street power in Islamabad. In doing this it actually offers 8216;compensatory8217; justice. Last week, it threw out petitions challenging Musharraf8217;s re-election on procedural grounds. On Wednesday it looked like reversing itself on merit.

The six 8216;Punjabi8217; judges that supported him seemed to be changing their minds after the lawyers8217; community began to cast doubt on the court8217;s integrity. In the new bench formed to hear the case on merits, one of the six judges changed his mind and put the court on notice that he now opposed what he had supported earlier. Another 8216;pro-Musharraf8217; judge may be intimidated by the allegation made by the opposition candidate Justice retd Wajihuddin that he had been seen having a meal with the attorney general.

Musharraf is toying with the idea of offering National Reconciliation to the opposition through a general amnesty on 8216;political cases8217; pending over the years without decisions. This is seen by many as a PPP-specific measure meant to benefit its leader who has corruption cases pending against her. This amnesty will persuade her to keep her party from resigning from its second largest block of seats in the National Assembly and the largest chunk in the Sindh assembly. A total boycott of his re-election is seen as a de-legitimising act in Pakistan. Of course, the combined opposition dominated by the clerics sees the PPP8217;s 8216;Musharraf option8217; as slavery to the US.

Even if Musharraf is re-elected, he will not find the going smooth. Terrorism is not going to go away in the short term, and the army may actually feel less inclined to fight an Al-Qaeda that is too entrenched and enjoys a measure of popularity among the people of Pakistan. He may make his job a little less arduous by changing his political bedfellow or adding another internationally more attractive one 8212; read the PPP 8212; to the one he already has in PMLQ. In all probability, given Musharraf8217;s success rate, we are already in the post-Musharraf period. The question is: will the politicians following him take the slack and prevent Pakistan from going further downhill?

The writer is an editor with 8216;The Friday Times8217; and 8216;The Daily Times8217;