Poll campaign ends in Lanka

Kumaratunga is seeking re-election for a second term on her 1994 promise of peace and ethnic harmony in the country, a promise that she was unable to keep in her first term. This time around, she has a prepared draft new constitution to prove her sincerity and has promised to implement it if elected.

Wickremesinghes campaign has been based on two specificplatforms: to the majority Sinhalese, a promise of economic prosperity and a modern, technologically advanced Sri Lanka; for the minority Tamils, the pledge to re-open talks with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, and a "de-escalation" of the conflict.

While Kumaratunga has sounded jaded in what is being seen as a negative and defensive campaign concentrating on the UNPs earlier repressive stint in power, Wickremesinghes campaign has been firmly focussed on the future.For this reason, it has been the cleverer of the two campaigns, especially in its promise to Sinhalese youth of an education in English and computers.

"He has pushed all the right buttons this time," said an insider of Kumaratungas Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). But whether it has helped Wickremesinghe gain the edge in the campaign is a bet no one wants to place.The absence of psephologists and professional pollsters has only added to the suspense thrown up by the many imponderables of this election. Consider these: the militaryvictories of the LTTE since November may have ruined Kumaratungas reputation as a capable military leader amongst the majority Sinhalese.

But on the other hand, Wickremesinghes advocacy of talks with Velupillai Prabhakaran, coming at this humiliating hour, could help consolidate the votes of the majority community firmly behind Kumaratunga. Prabhakarans recent speech castigating Kumaratunga may give Wickrmesinghe the Tamil votes. But on the other hand, it may have served to further the impression that the two men are in a secret deal to defeat Kumaratunga, and that could once again tilt the balance in favour of the President.

While the LTTE will influence the outcome of the election, the other force that may have an equally important say is the Leftist Janatha Vimukthi Perumina, that led armed insurrections against the state twice in 1971 and 1989 and is seeking the respectability of the ballot by fielding their own candidate in this election.

Going by results of local elections, the JVP has about 8 percent of vote share in its stronghold in rural southern Sri Lanka. Its voters are mostly disgruntled supporters of Kumaratunga and by eating into her support base, the party could potentially back a victory for Kumaratunga. But their candidate, Nandana Gunathilaka, is a low-profile man and the JVP has not been able to command the same attention it did in the local elections earlier this year. So, does Kumaratunga stand to gain, or would the disgruntled voter turn towards the UNP instead is impossible to predict.

What is certain is that the victor will haveto deal with a deadly and intransigent guerrilla group whose continuing military successes threatens to change Lanka’s map; a sluggish economy whose recovery is tied to an end to the war; and a host of other problems connected to these.