Tuesday in Pennsylvania’s hard-fought Democratic presidential primary, there will be a winner and a loser. But the winner might not be the one with the most votes.With neither Hillary Rodham Clinton nor Barack Obama able to secure the nomination without support from the so-called “superdelegates” who will cast decisive votes, many dynamics are at work beyond who comes out on top in one day of balloting.In what might seem like a paradox, the Clinton victory predicted by nearly all public opinion polls might turn out to be a loss if she doesn’t win by a significant margin. And if Obama keeps the results closer than some surveys suggest, he could be considered victorious—unless it appears that Clinton’s campaign has succeeded in casting doubt on his credentials to be commander-in-chief or his ability to win support in the fall from white, working-class voters.Here are some factors that, in addition to who wins the vote, will help decide whether the Pennsylvania primary is one more way station on the road to the final primaries in June or whether the nomination fight might come to a quicker conclusion:THE SPREAD: Clinton needs to win by at least 10 percentage points to show that she has not lost her touch in the industrial rust belt, several uncommitted superdelegates said. If she is successful, she would be able to point superdelegates that she trounced Obama despite being severely outspent on television and radio advertisements in Pennsylvania, by a more than a 2-to-1 margin.If Obama can keep the race to within 10 percentage points, or even win, he would claim that he has shown surprising strength in a state that is Clinton’s demographic home turf, with many of the lower-income Democrats who have supported her in past primaries. THE DEMOGRAPHICS: A loss by only a narrow margin would help Obama’s contention that he had overcome the two biggest setbacks of his candidacy: the controversies over his pastor’s racially explosive sermons and Obama’s own remarks that economically “bitter” voters in small towns “cling” to guns, religion and anti-immigrant sentiment.Superdelegates want to see that Obama, who has struggled to extend his base beyond black voters and wealthy, educated whites, is able to compete against Republican John McCain for those swing voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio.“The Obama campaign has simply not done a very effective job connecting with blue collar and middle-income voters, and they are the heart and soul of the Democratic Party,” campaign pollster Geoff Garin said. He added later that Obama’s “appeal among white voters typically has been among the people who are the most affluent” and best educated. THE DELEGATES: Many superdelegates will be hard-pressed to vote for Clinton if she trails Obama among the so-called “pledged delegates,” those who are selected by the primaries and caucuses. Even if Obama is thumped by double digits in Pennsylvania, Clinton would not pick up enough delegates there to cut substantially into Obama’s lead. THE ELECTABILITY QUESTION: After a gruelling, six-week campaign, Pennsylvania voters had the unusual job of choosing between two bruised candidates. As Democratic strategist and uncommitted superdelegate Donna Brazile put it Monday, Pennsylvania might show whether the “tone and the tenor of the campaign has worn voters down.” Arizona superdelegate Don Bivens, who has not endorsed a candidate, said he would be watching the exit polls closely Tuesday to gauge how each would do in his state in the general election. Hillary Clinton 60 yrs Barack Obama 46 yrsPercentage of supporters among those aged 65 and above in states that have voted so far57 % CLINTON 36% OBAMA Percentage of supporters among those aged 30 and below in states that have voted so far38% CLINTON 59% OBAMAPercentage of Democrat voters aged over 45 in Pennsylvania 58 %
