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Journalism of Courage
At ground zero of what has now become the Patidar factor for the December 11 poll, an undercurrent against the BJP and Chief Minister Narendra Modi is more pronounced than what many in the BJP believe to be a minor irritant. Apart from rebel Dhiru Gajera8217;s highly visible campaign8212;he8217;s contesting on a Congress ticket from Surat North, the shift in affection is evident among a considerable section of Saurashtra8217;s migrant Patidars, the Leuva Patels, here in Surat8217;s diamond district of Varachha. This, in effect, will mean a shift in the voting pattern of five-lakh Patel families in Saurashtra.
But last week, former chief minister and rebel leader Keshubhai Patel8217;s comment that that he is still with the BJP almost threatened to take the steam out of the Patidar movement and the BJP rebels.
The half-page advertisement claimed Keshubhai was still their leader and gave reasons on why there should be a change of government. The advertisement was issued apparently to preempt a BJP one that was to show Narendra Modi and Keshubhai Patel together.
8220;Within Surat it would have a limited impact on the Surat north seat, but through its over five-lakh families in Saurashtra, it sure will knock off the BJP8217;s numbers,8221; says Laxman Dobaria, chairman of the Federation of Gujarat Weavers8217; Association. 8220;The Patidars are supporting the BJP rebels and that obviously will hurt the BJP wherever the Patidars form a major chunk of voters. The Patidars grievances include corruption in government although it is commonly believed this is a clean administration,8221; says a Patidar builder in the city with links to both the BJP and Congress.
He is seconded by many businessmen who have their roots in Saurashtra.
The second factor at play is the Bhavnagar vs Amreli divide. The migrant Saurashtra Patidars in Surat mainly come from these two districts. With the Gajera brothers Dhiru and Vasant belonging to Amreli, and pro-BJP diamond merchants Nanu Vanani, Govind Kakadia, and Mathur Savani belonging to Bhavnagar, the divide is clear. 8220;It might be a coincidence but it is obvious which faction is going to vote for whom,8221; says Kanjibhai Bhalala, a noted community leader and director in the Varachha Cooperative Bank.
But it8217;s not as if there is no divide among the Patidars. Age is one of them. Prafull Pansheria, the party8217;s corporator in the Surat Municipal Corporation SMC, is a Patidar in his early 30s and is a Modi supporter. 8220;Modi stands like a wall against difficulties and his image of a doer attracts us,8221; he says.
The rebel factor
8226; Patidars or Patels are divided into two communities: Kadva and Leuva Patels
8226; They constitute about 16 per cent of the population in Gujarat
8226; A highly prosperous community, in Saurashtra they own most of the groundnut oil mills and cotton ginning mills
8226; There are about 5-lakh Patidars in Surat
8226; In 1995, the BJP swept the Assembly elections. The party won 121 out of 182 seats of which 36 MLAs were Patidars. Keshubhai Patel, a Leuva Patel, became Chief Minister
8226; In 1998, of the 117 party MLAs, 42 belonged to the Patidar community
Keshubhai speaks up
Last week, he said he was still with the BJP but now Keshubhai Patel has apparently decided to participate in the 8220;oust-Modi8221; campaign. On Monday, before leaving for Surat to campaign, Keshubhai told journalists, 8220;The Utkarsh Samiti has issued an advertisement which carries the statements I have made on different occasions. I stand by it.8221;
But senior BJP rebel MP from Rajkot, Vallabh Kathiriya, a close confidant of the former chief minister, said, 8220;Keshubhai will not address any public meetings during this visit. He will attend a wedding ceremony there. On Wednesday or Thursday, Keshubhai will visit Jetpur and Rajkot in Saurashtra and attend some social functions there. He will confine himself to social functions, such as wedding ceremonies and religious discourses where he will freely interact with people and discuss the current political situation in the state with them.8221;
