Opinion poll says NDA is on a slide

The BJP-led NDA is on a slide, an India Today-org marg opinion poll has said predicting 242-252 seats, short of a simple majority, for the r...

The BJP-led NDA is on a slide, an India Today-org marg opinion poll has said predicting 242-252 seats, short of a simple majority, for the ruling combine in the Lok Sabha, down from 304 in 1999.

Congress and its allies were expected to gain 35-45 seats from the 140 bagged in the last general elections, as per the ‘‘mood of the nation poll’’.

Paradoxically, the poll shows the rating of A.B. Vajpayee as best Prime Minister remained a dozen points above Congress president Sonia Gandhi though her popularity has risen six per cent compared to the rise of three per cent for him six months ago.

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On who will make the best PM, Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani, Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav and NCP leader Sharad Pawar scored three per cent each, while Jyoti Basu and Mayawati got two per cent compared to Vajpayee’s 37 per cent and Sonia’s 25 per cent.

According to the poll, the public disenchantment with the NDA government aggregated to a 0.43 per cent anti-incumbency swing across the country compared to its actual position in 1999, which may cause it to lose 57 seats. The survey which covered 17,500 respondents across 98 parliamentary constituencies was conducted between July 28 and August 6.

Also 46 per cent of those surveyed did not consider Sonia’s foreign origin a problem. Sonia’s popularity stays below that of her party while Vajpayee’s approval ratings were higher than that of BJP. The poll further says that unless Sonia sought allies, the Congress would not be able to convert a hung Parliament.

The poll indicates that issues like Ayodhya, caste and religion have begun to take a back seat, as only 35 per cent respondents think yodhya significant enough to decide their political choice.