The Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party had drawn a blank during last year's elections in the 22 Lok Sabha constituencies of western UP. The Samajwadi Party was the only one to open its account. And `Maulana' Mulayam may still surprise those prophets of doom.The Muslims are angry with SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, but they haven't abandoned him completely. The message from the minority community, which accounts for more than 20 per cent of the electorate in 30-odd constituencies is clear - If the Congress is in a winning position vote for the party; otherwise go with anyone from the BSP, SP or even the Loktantrik Congress of Naresh Agrawal to stop the BJP. The only gain for the Congress is that it is no more an untouchable and it has nothing to lose. The party which was not even in the running is now posing a serious challenge to the BJP and the SP in 14 constituencies.The Muslims are likely to dump the SP's candidate in Saharanpur as Rashtriya Lok Dal candidate Rasheed Masood may be in a position todefeat the BJP's Nakli Singh. But in Sambhal and Bijnore, they are firmly behind Mulayam.However, Moradabad and Jalesar are out of bounds for the SP this time. If Mulayam has fielded Muslim candidates in some constituencies, such as Baghpat, Rampur, Saharanpur, Meerut and half-a-dozen other places to help the BJP because of a division of votes, he is sure to be disappointed. The community has seen through his plan. People are talking about a secret understanding between the SP and the BJP. Otherwise how could the BJP field an insignificant Jat against Mulayam in Sambhal, which has 60 per cent voters comprising Yadavs and Muslims, wondered Ashok Singh, a Delhi MLA who has been deputed by the Congress high command to oversee the poll. Singh also pointed out that in Kannauj the BJP has again helped Mulayam by giving the seat to the Loktantrik Congress which has no popular base.The erosion in the SP's Muslim base is reflected in the decision of a dozen of its MLAs and ex-MPs to desert Mulayam and join theCongress. (Ateek Ahmad, Dr Muslim, Ashok Singh, Ubetur Rehman, Kamla Rawat, Sarvar Ali, Rampal Verma, Rajpal Tyagi, Sanjay Garg, Ari Mardan Singh, Mitra Sen Yadav and Jang Bahadur Patel.) The Muslims have realised that Mulayam Singh has failed miserably in protecting their interests and preventing the BJP from forming a government in UP or at the Centre. Therefore, a large chunk of the minority voters wants to align with a national party.But they are not ready to abandon Mulayam totally. One of the reasons for this guarded reaction is that the upper castes, comprising Rajputs, Brahmins, Vaishs and others, continue to back the BJP in this part of the state. The upper castes may be angry with UP Chief Minister Kalyan Singh to some extent and may be feeling slighted for being ignored by the BJP high command which has imposed on the state a Lodh - not even a fraction of the population. But Rajnath Singh, BJP's state unit president, Kalraj Mishra and Balramji Tandon have left nobody in doubt that Kalyan's daysare numbered. ``If Vajpayee is voted to power, you take it from me that things will change in UP,'' is Singh's public posture. And it clicks as Kalyan's most trusted lieutenant, Sakshi Maharaj, was denied a ticket from Farrukhabad and Vajpayee ignores him at his rallies.The Jat-Muslim combination can be deadly in four constituencies in western UP. But Ajit Singh cannot hope to encash it in more than three constituencies (Baghpat, Kairana and Saharanpur). The Congress can hope to win only in Rampur in this region as Begum Noor Bano of the Rampur Riyasat had lost by a narrow margin in 1998 to Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, who is a minister in the Vajpayee Government and is again in the fray. He has become somewhat unpopular and wanted a ticket from Moradabad this time but the RSS opted for a new person who is unlikely to make it as his own sister is contesting against him on the Congress ticket.In Amroha, Chetan Chauhan of the BJP may feel comfortable this time but there is a likelihood of the Muslims going withthe BSP. With two lakh Dalits in the pocket, the BSP candidate can also bank on the 3 lakh Muslims as the SP has fielded a Jat to cut into the Rashtriya Lok Dal's Jat votes only.In Meerut, Avtar Singh Bhadana (Congress) is far ahead of the SP and the BSP candidates. Mohsina Kidwai had polled less than 40,000 votes in 1998. The BJP's three-time sitting MP Amarpal Singh was sitting pretty until Bhadana emerged from nowhere and got Jats, Gujjars and the Muslims on his side. The combination may be deadly but for the SP which has put up a strong Muslim candidate and the BSP a Gujjar.
