The surest sign of a fading dictatorship is self-delusion. In arresting and deporting Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Monday, General Pervez Musharraf has confirmed that the desperation to hang on to power has overwhelmed his sense of political judgment. No one expects political usurpers like Musharraf to differentiate between right and wrong. It is the capacity to manage contradictions at home and abroad that gives dictators their day under the sun. Since last March, when he sacked the Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and triggered popular protests against military rule in Pakistan, Musharraf has repeatedly demonstrated that political competence has deserted him. Instead of letting Sharif and the other exiled former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto back into Pakistan in a bow to the popular resentment against army rule, Musharraf made the former a martyr and discredited the latter. Above all, Musharraf has tightened the noose around himself.
Sharif, who did not distinguish himself as a prime minister in the 1990s, now looks larger than life for daring to come back to Pakistan, and will greatly benefit from the seething popular resentment against army rule. This is especially true in West Punjab, traditionally the most consequential force in
Pakistan, which rallied handsomely behind Judge Chaudhry a few months ago and is now rapidly consolidating behind Sharif. The blunder on Sharif might not have mattered much had the egotist general concluded an early deal with Bhutto. But the very act of negotiating with an increasingly isolated general has robbed Bhutto of her political standing with the popular aspirations that want to see the army return to the barracks. After the shabby treatment the general has meted out to Sharif there might be even less of an incentive for Bhutto to accept the unenviable status as Musharraf’s political sidekick.
With no credible civilian allies to lend him political cover, Musharraf’s regime today stands naked before its people. The supreme court had ruled that Sharif must be allowed to return. So Musharraf may have put himself into a reckless confrontation with the judiciary. Since the supreme court has emerged as a defender of the rule of law, Musharraf’s decision on Sharif indicates he may be contemplating more drastic steps. With no possibility of legally extending his tenure either as president or as army chief, Musharraf might have to fall back on martial law. As he sinks, Musharraf may want to take Pakistan with him.
But that is not where the people of Pakistan want to go.