Meanwhile, Pak army morale hits new low after desertions at Frontier

But Indian intelligence agencies say that what has worried Musharraf most is the extraordinarily high number of desertions from the backbone of the Pakistani army — its infantry battalions.

Latest estimates, churned out by Indian agencies on the basis of communication interceptions, inputs from agents and independent monitors, suggest a huge increase in the number of desertions in the regular army deployed in the NWFP and Waziristan.

Indian intelligence officials say that from October 11 to 16, the Pakistani army HQ recorded an unprecedented 160 cases of desertions among all ranks. Of this, 97 per cent took place in the NWFP and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) while the remaining were recorded in Balochistan.

“One or two cases of desertion every month are nothing big for an army of any substantial strength. But this deluge in Pakistan has happened after operations were intensified in the areas. They don’t seem to like the idea of fighting their own people,” said an Indian official who did not wish to be named.

Other indicators, again gathered through various channels, point to a lowering of morale in troops fighting Taliban militants. A JCO committed suicide on October 18 in South Waziristan — inputs suggest that it was a protest against the army’s action in the region.

The Pakistan army motto is: Iman, Taqwa, Jihad fi Sabilillah (faith, piety, striving in the path of Allah). Analysts say this itself contradicts the action in NWFP for the ordinary soldier who feels he is waging a jihad in the name of America against his own people. The challenge before the Pak Army, which is a very professional army, is to justify that the fight there is for Pakistan and not someone else’s war, say these analysts.

Intelligence data suggest that another reason for the bad morale is the abysmally low kill ratio of elite troops against the Taliban fighters. Data put forward to top defence and intelligence officials says that the ratio is 1:1.37 — for every five Taliban fighters killed, three Pakistani soldiers die. This, in counter-insurgency operations, is simply unacceptable.

Reports also say that the lack of public support from back home is also affecting the morale of troops. A recent communication intercept of a Pakistani Army officer’s conversation with his family revealed that all telephone lines of troops fighting in the area have been disconnected from the civilian network and soldiers are forbidden to leave camp.

“The army seems to be afraid that if a soldier calls home or talks with an outsider, he will be decried for fighting his own countrymen. Troops have been insulated from the outside world to fight the war,” the official said.

The most extraordinary case, in which over 200 regular army troops — including a Lt Col and Major — were captured without firing a shot in August in South Waziristan has also been played down by the army. Analysts feel that Musharraf’s subsequent outburst against the soldiers, saying that they ‘acted unprofessionally’, is another pointer that something had really gone wrong. “The outburst, especially against troops who belonged to his own regiment, was unexpected,” said strategic affairs expert Stephen Cohen, during a recent visit to India.

Reports say that soldiers posted in Waziristan have refused to obey orders and have even deserted posts, taking their service weapons along. “What did one expect after hundreds of security men have been abducted almost on a daily basis over the months and scores have been killed by the highly organised and trained militants,” said an article in the Daily Times on October 12, written after six army personnel deserted last month.

While the events across the border — clearly showing that the Pakistani Army’s morale is at an all time low — have infused a sense of smug satisfaction at South Block, analysts warn that it may be very short-lived.

“They should not be happy with all this, what Pakistan is fighting today, India may have to fight tomorrow,” warns Cohen.