Low infiltration: Intelligence, snow get credit

Though infiltration from across the border was down to ‘‘minimal’’ over the past fortnight, the sources said that it was no thanks to Pakistan. ‘‘There is no indication that infiltration is down because of Pakistan’s initiatives. None of the intercepts reveal Pakistan directing the terrorists to stop their activities against India. Infiltration is down only because of precise intelligence inputs and successful operations undertaken by the armed forces,’’ a senior government official said.

Moreover, snowfall in the upper reaches of the Valley last week had also worked as a deterrent for infiltrators. However, sources said that it was still too early to celebrate the drop in infiltration. Levels of infiltration and violence could go up once the passes became more accessible. More Nadimarg like joint operations by militant groups against isolated security forces’ pickets and minority settlements in outlying areas could be expected.

According to the sources, Lashkar-e-Toiba had asked its cadres in the Valley to step up terrorist attacks and fix a target of minimum eight-nine actions, including two or three fidayeen attacks for each of its operational group. As per the latest information, the strength of militants operating in J-K was assessed at around 3,200-3,400.

Though Hizbul Mujahideen had the highest number of cadres (around 1,500), it had not been very effective operationally due to factional infighting. Terrorist outfits dominated by foreign mercenaries like LeT (around 1200), Jaish-e-Mohammad and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen had been more effective operationally, they said.

About 1200-1500 trained militants of various outfits were waiting on the Line of Control to infiltrate into Jammu and Kashmir. Sources added that an additional 3,000-3,500 militants were still lodged in various training camps in PoK.