Lasting peace is not a party

The dialogue between two the mid-level official committees began over a month ago. The fact that they could get elusive Maoist leader Prachanda to the table was a signal that the dialogue was moving in the desired direction. But will it reach the desired destination? Will it achieve peace, democracy and economic prosperity?

There are doubts and they are certainly not misplaced. The moral and administrative authority of Prime Minister G P Koirala, undoubtedly the country’s tallest leader, has got some drubbing in recent weeks. The House of Representatives, which was revived four years after its dissolution, has arbitrarily declared itself ‘supreme’ and given the Speaker sweeping executive powers which, in fact, have weakened the Prime Minister’s authority. All is not well within the seven party coalition either. There are rumours of a rift.

Compare this with the strong message Prachanda is sending out. His guerrillas took charge of the Prime Minister’s official residence to host his first ever public press conference. Then he went ahead and made some sweeping remarks against the present government, including its army. None of the ministers and seven-party leaders sharing the dais with him dared to counter him. It was quite a spectacle—the seven party alliance leaders dwarfed by Prachanda the Hero who announced that his future role model would be Lord Buddha. Of course, he didn’t mention if modelling himself on Buddha would mean seeking forgiveness from the victims of Maoist atrocities.

Koirala’s failing health has only added to the country’s troubles. Last year, as he attended a series of meetings with Maoist leaders, mostly in India, 83-year old Koirala had told them it would be much easier for them to join competitive parliamentary politics ‘‘before I am out of the scene’’. He was frank enough also to tell Prachanda that he was as guilty as the King in weakening parliamentary democracy in Nepal. Prachanda on the other hand, sees merit in hard talk. He knows the gains of offensive posturing and so he’s talking about human right violations and how the Maoists were compelled to take up arms.

And his line seems to be paying off already. His aggressive posturing comes at a time when the army and security forces, including the civil police and the armed police force (APF), are completely demoralised. Home Minister K P Situala has also succeeded in single handedly demoralising the security forces. He’s suspended five top level police, APF and Intelligence chief even before the high level commission probing excesses by the state during the movement for democracy could get down to work. As a result, the commission headed by one of the most respected retired judges of the Supreme Court is being viewed as a mere arm of the ‘vindictive government’.

To many in Nepal, the government is going all out to appease Maoists. Unilateral condemnation of government forces and the government’s arbitrary action against security officials are now being seized by Maoists to make the point that they were victims of state-perpetuated violence.

Given these circumstances, the ongoing negotiation holds promise for the Maoists. But there’s fear that if cornered, the security forces could spoil the peace party. India, US, UK and other countries have already warned the government of possible negative fallouts.

On the other hand, the peace process has clearly been one-track so far—it’s been only between two committees.

The government also doesn’t seem to have taken into account the crisis the country can plunge into if the talks don’t move in the right direction. It could pose the biggest ever threat to Nepal’s existence. Subjugating its authority totally to the Maoists may not be all that wise.

yubaraj.ghimire@expressindia.com