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Journalism of Courage
It was 5 degrees Celsius below freezing point and heavy snow had carpeted the desolate Shomali plains stretching up to the craggy Hindukush mountains as the plane landed in the heavily fortified city of Kabul. A day later Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was not quite as lucky, and had to fly on to New Delhi as the thick snow had forced the closure of Kabul airport.
The weather in Afghanistan is as unpredictable as the emerging security scenario with the war-torn country bracing for another round of confrontation following the resurgence of Taliban from the south. That this development has much to do with involvement from the Pakistani side is not a secret.
Reading the signs
How this situation develops and whether the Taliban grow in strength over the coming months will be relevant to India. Those signs are expected to be more evident once the winter ends. Pakistan has long used its frontline areas with Afghanistan for its so-called strategic depth. The Taliban, in turn, have been used by Islamabad against countries like India to limit their influence in the area. So, when New Delhi expresses concerns about the security of Indian nationals in the country8212;as it did during External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee8217;s visit to Kabul this week8212;it is also pointing to the complicity of Pakistanis in the re-emergence of the Taliban. In other words, India would surely want a counterfoil to the Taliban in the area, a front for Pakistani interests, to deny them the strategic depth.
For now, India has only asked the Afghans how it could help in their country8217;s security. India is ready to do more than it has on the issue by training staff and providing non-lethal assistance but it is clear the initiative has to come from the Afghans. The big picture for the Indians is to have a greater role in the country8217;s future, to help the Afghans leave behind the close to three decades of civil war.
Driving through Kabul, it is not hard to see why Afghanistan desperately requires aid. Past the Wazir Akbar Khan district where the rich and diplomatic staff stay, or the new city Shahr-e-Naw and the old diplomatic area, the capital city is desolate. In the snow, it looks bleaker. But, as a local points out, the signs of luxury are to be seen on the roads8212;big cars that can be imported because they are cheap, even though often stuck in Kabul8217;s frequent traffic jams. Second hand cars are virtually dumped in the country, but they look comfortable against the poverty all around.
Rebirth pangs
Go to Chicken Street to buy rugs. The area does not conceal Afghanistan8217;s present. The power shortage is evident. LPG-fired heating stoves brought from Iran are perhaps the most popular and in the biting cold the only comfort. Inside the shops that usually have no lighting, even the famed Afghan rugs fail to interest prospective buyers, many of whom have to wade through slush on the untarred lanes outside. It is not difficult to visualise what other parts of Afghanistan might be like.
With the objective of finding a bigger role to play in this country after the fall of the Taliban in 2001, India has become the fifth largest donor nation in Afghanistan. It has also made it necessary for India to have an overland transit route through Pakistan, using the Khyber-Jalalabad-Kabul link, for its aid to reach the Afghans. 8220;We have told Pakistan about the transit route. They have yet to respond,8221; said External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee.
Afghanistan8217;s entry into SAARC is an important step for India. In effect this brings to fruition what is believed to be President Karzai8217;s vision of an integrated Central and South Asia in which his country would be a crucial link. India shares this view and that explains the first ever expansion of SAARC. The message that New Delhi has sent to Kabul is that it will go the extra distance to protect Afghanistan8217;s interests.
Onerous burden of uniting
What does the future hold for the war ravaged country? The resurgence of the Taliban has sent another message, the response to which will determine Afghanistan8217;s movement towards democracy and prosperity. The Taliban attacks have meant that the NATO forces would have to be stationed in there for a longer time now. One priority would be handling the 8220;minor contradictions8221; of balancing the infighting among the tribes in what is still largely a feudal society. The other would be to resolve the 8220;major contradictions8221;, or the powerplay of the nations interested in having a say in Afghanistan8217;s future. A beefing up of the NATO forces and increased funding could enable that.
More importantly, Karzai8217;s writ would have to run throughout the country. The south bordering Pakistan presents an uncomfortable truth in this regard. In Northern Waziristan, for instance, Taliban elements have entered into a deal with Pakistan. What is the big danger? As one analyst put it, 8220;We have to watch out for a situation where the minor contradictions merge together to fight the bigger contradictions. In other words, there is a clear danger that differences could be sunk to fight a common enemy. This has happened in Iraq and could happen in Afghanistan.8221;
In Afghanistan8217;s fickle political climate, close friends may fall by the wayside. One of them is Abdul Rashid Dostum, a warlord belonging to the Northern Alliance whom India supported during its fight with the Taliban. He leads the National Islamic Movement of Afghanistan and has serious differences with Ata Mohammad Nur, governor of Balkh. But he has been cowed. An Indian diplomat familiar with the developments there explains Dostum is no longer of any use to the Americans. 8220;He is just sulking these days,8221; he said.
But, with friends in Kabul, India has decided to seize the moment. The Indian community in Afghanistan is said to be influential; growing Indian involvement in the country8217;s reconstruction has put them in the spotlight. An incident last week hinted at India8217;s clout. Kabul airport was closed due to heavy snowfall. Yet, sometime in the afternoon, one flight was allowed to take off. It was the craft carrying External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee home.
New Delhi to Kabul: then and now
1919: Full independence from Britain under Amanullah Khan, who proclaimed himself king in 1926. Modern reforms were instituted by Amanullah and his successors Mohammed Nadir Shah 1929-33 and Mohammed Zahir Shah 1933-73
1973: Monarchy fell to a military coup and Mohammed Daud Khan established a republic
1980: Babrak Karmal is installed as ruler, backed by Soviet troops. US, Pakistan, China, Iran and Saudi Arabia supply money and arms to counter Soviet Union. India takes neutral stand on Soviet occupation.
1985-1988: Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev says he will withdraw troops from Afghanistan. Soviet Union begins pulling out troops.
1992: Resistance closes in on Kabul and Najibullah falls from power.
1993: Mujahideen factions agree on formation of a government with ethnic Tajik, Burhanuddin Rabbani, proclaimed president.
1994-99: Pashtun-dominated Taliban emerges as major challenge to the Rabbani government. By 1999, Taliban control over 90 percent of Afghan territory.
December 1999: Indian Airlines flight IC-814 flying from Kathmandu to New Delhi with more than 180 persons hijacked and taken to Kandahar. Hostages released after India hands over three terrorists, Mohammad Masood Azhar, Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar and Ahmed Omar Sayed Sheikh
September 2001: US demands that the Taliban turn over terrorist leaders suspected of plotting the attacks on the World Trade Center. US, British airstrikes begin in October. India supports Northern Alliance against the Taliban
November 2001: Kabul falls to the Northern Alliance. Interim government under Hamid Karzai until elections in 2004 for a permanent government.
2004: Loya Jirga or grand assembly adopts new constitution with a strong presidency. India extends financial aid, helps build hospital, schools and the new Parliament. Karzai wins presidential elections
2005-6: India8217;s attempts to send aid material hampered by Pakistan refusing transit to Afghanistan. Musharraf and Karzai wrangle over terror activities. Taliban shows signs of resurgence. Indian Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee visits Kabul.
