JD begins to write epitaph for its last outpost

The last outpost of the Janata Dal, Karnataka, appears to be crumbling. For the first time in the State's history, a real three-pronged batt...

The last outpost of the Janata Dal, Karnataka, appears to be crumbling. For the first time in the State’s history, a real three-pronged battle is on the cards and it is the Janata Dal that could get hurt the most.Traditionally, the Congress has been on the one side and the anti-Congress forces on the other. The emergence of the BJP all over the State, aided by the Lok Shakti this time, has made an otherwise listless, issueless campaign interesting.

It is true that the BJP improved its position in the 1994 and the 1996 Lok Sabha elections. But the BJP’s spread was not wide. This time round the party has emerged as a force to reckon with in most of the 28 seats.Another development is the possibility of the Janata Dal yielding its anti-Congress space to the BJP. In 1996, there was a formidable caste combination backing it. Vokkaligas, Lingayats, backward classes and Muslims rallied behind the JD, if not en bloc, sufficiently to give it a record 16 seats.

The support of this rainbow combination of castescannot be taken for granted. Muslims, accounting for over nine per cent of the electorate, seems to have a change of mind. With prospects of the Congress improving, Muslim opinion-makers are not sure of the JD’s ability to keep the BJP at bay.

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Muslim leaders who have been having a series of meetings to devise their strategy are known to be thinking in terms of backing the JD only in seats where it is a sure-shot winner. The Muslim vote can be crucial in about 15 seats where the community has over a lakh votes.

A big question mark also hangs over the Lingayat vote. The community has its own man as Chief Minister but J.H. Patel is not a caste leader. Former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda, a Vokkaliga, still has a vice-like grip on the party and the government. A JD victory will be considered a Gowda victory, which they don’t want.

The northern Karnataka region where the Lingayats are concentrated is still backward. People here have a grouse that neither Patel nor Gowda has done enough for thedevelopment of the region.The backward classes too are not happy. The raw deal given by Gowda to R.L. Jalappa, an Idiga, is bound to have adverse impact on the party in the southern districts. Another unhappy segment is the scheduled castes. A section is disgruntled because its leaders have been given short shift in the selection of candidates.

Apart from the shaky support base, the anti-incumbency factor is worrying the party leadership. The Patel government’s stock in terms of performance is low. Making matters worse is Patel himself with his casual, cavalier approach towards the tasks of administration.