It’s politics and they aren’t stupid

Swadeshi may have been key to Union Human Resources Development Minister Murli Manohar Joshi’s resistance to the disinvestment process, but his stance at the CCD is interpreted merely as a snub for Disinvestment Minister Arun Shourie, who had criticised Joshi’s education policy at the recent BJP meet at Delhi’s Talkatora Stadium. Joshi — whose ministry does not have a single PSU, and who was specially invited to the CCD — in fact, suggested the creation of an asset management company to which the government’s assets would be transferred before sale to private and foreign firms.

The other special invitee at the CCD was Defence Minister George Fernandes, whose own PSUs are classified ‘strategic’. Incidentally, it was Fernandes — prompted apparently by rediscovered socialist loyalties and a need for greater proximity to Advani — who triggered the disinvestment relook by writing to the Prime Minister on the sale of Indian Petrochemicals Corporation Ltd (IPCL).

At the meeting, however, Fernandes, while expressing concern at Reliance’s projected monopoly in petrochemicals, only said the mid-course review could be undertaken, if necessary, with the polls in mind.

Elections were apparently of no concern to Commerce Minister Murasoli Maran, who came to Shourie’s rescue saying that disinvestment was a shining example of the government’s reform process and needed to be put on track.

As for the emperor of the Petroleum Ministry, he was desperately trying to keep his clothes on. Ram Naik’s ‘‘strategic oil sector’’ argument to keep HPCL-BPCL out of disinvestment purview could be read as his desire to continue his stranglehold over the cash-rich companies, now that IBP was firmly with Indian Oil and the Cabinet had approved majority government share in Indian Oil, Gas Authority of India Ltd, and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation.

‘‘But that is the case with all administrative ministries. As the process gathers momentum and the threat to their empire becomes real, resistance builds up,’’ says one cabinet minister who attended the meet.

Caught off-guard by the shift from economics to politics, Disinvestment Minister Arun Shourie — backed by the PM in all previous CCD meetings — was left fielding all objections, including the ‘‘strategic nature’’ of the petrol pumps, refineries and storage tanks that would pass on to the highest bidder if BPCL-HPCL were to be sold off.

Strategic status was also an issue with External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha, who objected to any change in the nomenclature he had mentioned in the Budget as finance minister. He also objected to a review of the disinvestment process, which had been approved by the same team and was the only success story of this government.

Finance minister Jaswant Singh did not seem particularly worried about the impact the disinvestment derailment would have on the Budget as he tried to appease the warring tribes. In the morning meeting, Singh had sided with the Advani camp, chiding Shourie for publicising his views on the opposition to his sell-off proposal and describing it as an ‘‘ambush’’. However, in the night, he backed Sinha and Shourie saying that defaulting on Cabinet-approved reforms would send a wrong signal to the market, he argued.

In the midst of all this, DPM Advani maintained a haughty silence to Vajpayee’s repeated pleas, indicating that he was well aware of his strength in numbers. However, he did not seal the fate of HPCL-BPCL outright, instead winning three months to reach a consensus. Senior Union ministers, however, say that the issue ‘‘has been indefinitely deferred’’. Which means it will surface from time to time and get postponed.

If the CDD indicated a definite shift in the power balance, the recent qualitative change in the RSS may explain the stance many leaders took last Saturday. The Sangh has asserted that it is no longer prepared to have its core agenda put on the backburner, and emphasised its point by launching the Jammu Morcha — with the twin planks of J&K trifurcation and statehood for Jammu — which forced the BJP, opposed to trifurcation, to adjust seats with the Morcha for the imminent state elections.

Though it was former RSS chief Rajendra Singh aka Rajju Bhaiyya who prevailed upon Vajpayee to name Advani as his deputy earlier this year, in recent weeks Sangh leaders have privately expressed slight dissatisfaction with Advani; some have reportedly even sent peace-feelers to the PM. Joshi’s speech against Gujarat CM Narendra Modi, delivered from the RSS headquarters in Nagpur in Sangh chief K Sudarshan’s presence, had its own message.

The Sangh’s support is an important consideration for BJP leaders looking at a post-Vajpayee scenario, and the disinvestment issue came in as a handy tool. To flag off its all-India movement against disinvestment, the Sangh has called a conference of friendly journalists on September 21-22 in Hardwar.

Where, then, does the PM stand in all this? He may have been in favour of disinvestment, but given Shourie’s near-complete isolation, Vajpayee preferred to beat a tactical retreat instead. But he could have hardly not got the message of the CCD: It showed him, once again, which way the wind was blowing in the BJP and in the Government.

(with Arati R. Jerath)