
The BJP8217;s crisis managers Pramod Mahajan, P.R. Kumaramangalam and M.L. Khurana who were to muster defections for the confidence motion failed to focus on an obvious soft target. In the 18-member AIADMK Lok Sabha contingent, at least eight were believed to be ripe for picking.
Jayalalitha, aware of her vulnerable flock insisted that the eight MPs whose loyalty was suspect accompany her in the flight from Chennai to Delhi. She even ordered them to stay in rooms adjacent to her suite at the Maurya Sheraton hotel, while the remaining 10 AIADMK MPs including two former ministers were at liberty to move about freely. Jayalalitha8217;s mistake was that she thought she could frighten the doubtful eight most of whom are first-timers picked up from obscurity, who cannot read or speak in either Hindi or English into submission with a scolding and warning that she would not re-nominate them for the parliamentary ticket. This had the opposite effect. One or two confided to fellow Tamilians in Delhi rather wistfully thatthey had not even been made an offer by the BJP, let alone an offer they couldn8217;t refuse!
Star stuck
After arriving in Delhi last Monday night, Jayalalitha did not stir out of her hotel the whole of the next day. Political observers sympathetic to the BJP claimed that this indicated that almost no one in the Opposition wanted to deal with the whimsical prima donna. Actually the reason Jayalalitha did not venture out was that on Tuesday the moon was in the eighth house which is not auspicious for those like her who are born under the powerful Magam star. On Tuesday morning Jayalalitha even spent an hour on a maha kali puja to ward off any adverse impact. Because of the planetaryconfiguration, Jayalalitha flew from Chennai on Monday night and the letter withdrawing support to the government was delivered on Wednesday after 9 a.m. when the inauspicious period had ended.
Clockwork timing
Haryana Chief Minister Bansi Lal failed to implement a scheme by which all state government employees would have to clock in and out while arriving and leaving office. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu was more successful in persuading recalcitrant government employees to fall in line and use punch cards.
When Minister of State for Social Welfare Maneka Gandhi first tried to introduce the punch card procedure in her ministry at Shastri Bhavan, the staff was up in arms. They relented only after it was agreed that not just the class III and class IV employees but even gazetted officers and the minister as well would have to clock in. In the bargain the Ministry of Personnel has now sent a proposal to the Prime Minister8217;s Office suggesting that the procedure followed by theSocial Welfare Ministry should be implemented in other Central Government offices as well.
Hobson8217;s choice
In Indian politics one seldom has the luxury of choosing the perfect time, place and the circumstances under which you act. Sonia Gandhi and her advisers had formulated what they considered a near-perfect scenario. They wanted the Vajpayee government to fall in the latter half of the year by which time the budget would have been passed, and the Vajpayee government would have shouldered the responsibility for clearing controversial decisions like the Insurance Bill and the signing of the CTBT. If the general elections were held around November, the Congress calculated it could win with a thumping majority thanks to the electorate8217;s disillusionment with the BJP government and the Congress emerging as the only viable alternative.
What Sonia did not bargain for was that Jayalalitha after one conciliatory meeting with the Congress president promptly accelerated her momentum for a topplingexercise. Sonia met Jayalalitha at the famous Swamy tea party not because she wanted to bring down the government just yet, but because she was keen on roping in Jayalalitha to support the demand for a joint parliamentary committee JPC on George Fernandes8217;s conduct as Defence Minister as sweet revenge for Fernandes8217;s role in the Bofors JPC.
Now Sonia has to deal with a problematic scenario. By joining hands with the mercurial Jayalalitha and with her partymen like Arjun Singh actively campaigning to dislodge the government, she can no longer take the moral high ground and claim that the Congress does not want to destablise the government. What is more, after keeping a cool distance from the Third Front, Sonia now finds herself in strange company. Mulayam Singh Yadav, for example, during the confidence motion questioned the bonafides of those who are descendants of the English-speaking elite!
Even if Vajpayee8217;s government falls, Sonia does not necessarily gain. The longer she stays on in power with thesupport of a khichree of unreliable partners, the more the onus for bad governance passes from the BJP to the Congress.