India prefers to play safe

The Ministry of External Affairs put out a sanitised reaction to the coup: “We are concerned about the developments in Pakistan. We are monitoring the situation and keeping ourselves fully informed.”

Reflecting this caution, Prime Minister A B Vajpayee, fresh after his swearing-in ceremony, was quoted as saying that as far as talks with Pakistan go, India “was willing to talk to anyone”, but “it is for Pakistan to create a climate for the resumption of dialogue between the two countries”.

The Ministry spokesman, too, refused to go beyond the deliberately low-key statement issued under Vajpayee’s name. The explanation here is that India does not want to react to the “internal developments” in another country. Foreign policy analysts felt that New Delhi could well be aiming at adopting the “pragmatic” approach made famous by the US in the past. That is why, they felt, there was no public reaction to the veiled reference to India made by Musharraf in his maiden speech on Pakistan TV early this morning: “Let no outside forces think that they can take advantage of the prevailing situation.”

But it is believed that the very formulation of New Delhi’s statement was debated quite extensively within the Government before it was first released by Principal Secretary Brajesh Mishra early in the afternoon. The view that won wanted a “minimalist” statement to be put out, presumably so that the media would not speculate about the Government’s intentions.

“India’s policy towards Pakistan is consistent and principled. We wish the people of Pakistan well,” the statement said. “We remain committed to developing friendly and cooperative ties with Pakistan, based on mutual trust and confidence, for which the government of Pakistan needs to create the right environment,” it added.

Asked whether or not India was condemning the coup in Pakistan, the Ministry spokesman refused to comment, only saying that the prepared note was “self-evident”.

New Delhi now feels that Musharraf may well instal a civilian puppet regime, headed by people like Moinuddin Qureshi and Shahid Burki (both of whom are well-known reformers), which would be a positive signal to the West. Other possibilities are an intra-party election within the Pakistani Muslim League, or otherwise, the continuation of Musharraf himself as the chief martial law administrator.

Meanwhile, barring the US, the West reacted strongly. The European Union was most forthright (we “deplore” and “condemn” the coup), Commonwealth Secretary-General Emeka Anyaoku threatened to expel Pakistan from the body, while British foreign secretary Robin Cook did not rule out economic sanctions against Pakistan. Japanese PM Obuchi said Tokyo was “not happy at all about the way the Pakistan military forces have taken control of power”, while IMF chief Michel Camdessus pointed out that aid to Pakistan was now in jeopardy. Only China pointed out that “Pakistan is our friendly neighbour. We are concerned with the fluid situation in Pakistan and are presently furthering our understanding of the situation.”