If not Iran, maybe Turkmen gas: Aiyar gets Pak invite

‘‘We have clearly understood that the common interest is in accessing low-cost energy from the immediate neighbourhood, an arc from the Caspian Sea to the Arabian Sea,’’ said Aiyar in a media briefing on the first day of deliberations. ‘‘Pakistan today has reconfirmed its decision to become a party to the discussion.’’

Aiyar had a one-on-one with his counterpart Amanullah Khan Jadoon, followed by delegate-level talks this evening. While a joint statement will be issued tomorrow, India is now also willing to be included in the process behind the other pipeline option—Turkmenistan via Afghanistan and Pakistan (also known as TAP). This option is favoured by the US, which has expressed its reservations on the Indo-Iran pipeline.

‘‘Pakistan has offered to arrange for a formal invite for me to join ministerial level talks, possibly in July, in Ashkabad in Turkmenistan,’’ said Aiyar. India seeking to come on board here, using the Pakistan route, is significant as it has earlier turned down invitations to participate in TAP. ‘‘Everything is needed. We need to get it from everywhere,’’ said Aiyar.

Both sides, Aiyar said, also agreed that as per the current information an overland pipeline was the most viable option, both technically and economically. This is in the context of Pakistan exploring a sub-sea pipeline from Qatar. India has requested Pakistan to share its findings on this route.

On the Iran pipeline, Aiyar said he briefed the Pakistan side on Indian issues and concerns vis-a-vis security and logistics. Some preliminary discussions have been held on cost issues, Aiyar said. India is trying to get Pakistan to join the negotiation process to secure the best price from Iran.

Earlier in the day, a cautious Ahmad Waqar, Pakistan’s Secretary Petroleum, said that Pakistan has a ‘‘total commitment’’ to studying all the possible pipelines. ‘‘The onus is on both of us. To sustain our growth rates, we need energy.’’

But when asked about the timeframe for a decision, he was circumspect. Waqar said that Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has said that the country will take a call on its pipeline option by the end of the year. ‘‘Let’s hope this visit proves we can move forward,’’ said Waqar.

Obviously, Pakistan is seeking more time to firm up its commitment to a particular pipeline. Whether the players involved like it or not, the US issue will loom over the pipelines. For obvious reasons, the US will put its money behind a pipeline that does not go via Iran. However, Turkmenistan’s gas reserves are a fraction of Iran’s, the world’s second-largest gas supplier after Russia.

It’s against this background that India will seek tomorrow some sort of middle ground that will point forward while giving Pakistan more time to make up its mind.

According to Indian government sources, this could be in the form of a technical feasibility study between the three nations—funded by all three and conducted by an outside body.