Ho-Hum, The McCain Momentum

This year’s weird primary schedule and “open” rules have also allowed Independents and Democrats to vote in the Republican process and they’re seizing the opportunity with gusto. For example, Michigan’s Republican primary Tuesday drew more party-crashers than members, with 51 per cent of the voters either Independents or Democrats and only 49 per cent Republicans.

President Bill Clinton’s departure has left the first open seat at the White House in over a decade, compounded by “scandal-fatigue,” and is inspiring an "out-with-the-old/in-with-the-new” enthusiasm, according to Kohut. Nasty campaigning, which the Bush-McCain battle generated, traditionally turns voters off polls. But this year it angered them who went out just to cast ballots against offending parties. US voter turnout is often the lowest in the industrialised world. “We make it difficult for people in this country to vote,” said Tami Buhr with Harvard University’s Vanishing Voter Project, citing the lack of automatic voter registration and votes that are scheduled on workdays. The increasing competition between Bush and McCain as they go into each race has also envigorated voters, said Buhr, adding “it’s like `soon coming to a state near you!”

The Democratic race between favorite Vice President Al Gore and his only long-shot rival Bill Bradley produced dismal participation in their first primary in New Hampshire. But Kohut said the excitement sparked by the Republican primary race could carry over to the November general election when the party nominees go head-to-head. “I think we stand a good chance of having a better turn out. It’s not going to be a blowout and people will feel like they have more say in it and they’re more engaged with ongoing coverage,” Kohut said. “We wrote in 1996 that 76 per cent think Clinton’s going to win and 80 per cent think the race is a bore. I don’t think we’re going to be writing that this time,” he said.