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This is an archive article published on July 2, 2002

Give sagacity a chance

For nearly 55 years, the Kashmiris have been the victims of a power struggle between India and Pakistan. But in moving towards a solution to...

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For nearly 55 years, the Kashmiris have been the victims of a power struggle between India and Pakistan. But in moving towards a solution to the problem, we need to consider at least three new developments. First, take the present operations by the US against the Taliban and Al Qaida. The tension between India and Pakistan has adversely affected US efforts to hunt down the Al Qaida elements seeking refuge in Pakistan. From the US viewpoint therefore the crisis between India and Pakistan is a setback to its operations.

Second, the US has its vast intelligence network focused on the Indian subcontinent and Afghanistan. It is in a position to provide real time data to either side in such a manner that the balance of military power will tilt dramatically in favour of the country that it decides to support. Keeping this in view, if India decides to carry out a military operation without the concurrence of the US, chances of its success will be minimal.

Third, hostilities between India and Pakistan would divert the world’s attention from the Al Qaida. For world terrorist organisations linked to the Al Qaida, a possible Indo-Pak war could prove an an important breather. There are other factors too. The Gujarat developments have adversely affected India’s secular credibility. Coupled with fighting in Kashmir, the jehadis now have an appealing cause to unite over.

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Another aspect being debated is the efficacy of launching strikes against terrorist camps in PoK. Such a venture if exercised by India will give Pakistan two options. One, to retaliate in J&K. Second, to open the front along the international border. Viewed in the context of having strong local support in Kashmir valley, Pakistan would prefer operations being restricted to Kashmir and some parts of the Jammu region. Remember, that in September 1965, when Pakistan had attacked in J&K, it was India that was forced to launch operations across the international border to offset the advantage that Pakistan had in J&K.

From all indications, therefore, this is the time for India to use its resources — military, political, civic and administrative — to deny local support to terrorists. For this to happen, the leadership must find ways to end the Kashmir imbroglio which are acceptable to the people there.

Indian leaders need to be reminded that in 1947 Maharaja Hari Singh arrested Sheikh Abdullah of the National Conference, an ally of the Indian National Congress. Nehru and Patel were keen to visit Srinagar in mid-1947 to sort out the accession issue, Hari Singh did not permit them to do so. However, Gandhiji visited Srinagar on August 1, 1947. Before leaving for Kashmir, he said that he was not going to ask the Maharaja to accede to India. He explained: ‘‘The people of Kashmir should be asked whether they want to join Pakistan or India…The ruler is nothing. The people are everything.’’

(The writer is a retired brigadier)

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