For a few sops more

Cynics will snigger at the proposal, spin doctors will package it as a vital gesture. It remains to be seen, however, what the intended beneficiaries will actually get out of it. But no one will be surprised by the Union government8217;s decision to appoint yet another national commission to study the status of farmers and assess their condition. Governments love appointing commissions. Successive governments at the Centre and states have probably appointed more commissions of inquiry for the farm sector than any other in the economy. It is not that all this effort has been wasted. Many ideas have been implemented. This explains the resounding performance of the Indian farmer who has turned this country from being an import-dependent one that lived from 8220;ship-to-mouth8221; in the sixties into becoming an export oriented agricultural economy. Thus, the government8217;s second major announcement with respect to the farm economy, namely the decision to permit private sector in foodgrain export, has now come to pass. The real problem in agriculture however is that more often than not traders have done better than producers.

While the government8217;s announcements will immediately benefit traders, and of course indirectly and hopefully also growers, the farming community will have to rest content at this stage with the appointment of a commission. The other announcements like the one on street vendors and the other on rural internet connectivity are all good in intent but operationally their impact will vary from region to region. However, if the government is now coming forward with this package it is to give members of the ruling coalition some talking points at the time of elections. Rising forex, a rising sensex, even an 8.0 per cent growth is not going to earn votes for the ruling coalition as the Congress discovered to its dismay in 1996. Rather, target-oriented concessions have an appeal of their own. However, the most important lesson of most elections over the past two decades is that to return to power, parties in government must be seen to be performing well and must offer an environment of improved governance.

Defeating incumbents is easy in India, returning to power without rigging is the difficult act. It is a long time since any prime minister has been able to do that under normal circumstances. An assassination of its leader returned the Congress to power in 1985 and helped it return to power in 1991. A war enabled Vajpayee to return to power in 1999, just as it helped Indira Gandhi in 1973. In 2004, Vajpayee has to depend on his record of governance to secure re-election. While his peace initiatives and his commitment to communal harmony will help, it is the improved economic environment that will make the difference.