The Congress has decided it would need a 10 per cent positive swing in the votes in the next Lok Sabha elections to form government at the Centre on its own. The party hopes to achieve this by wooing the minorities, tribals and women.In one of the most significant opinions at the Shimla conference, the discussion paper on election preparedness states that the economic reforms have not paid dividends to the party. ‘‘The middle-to-upper income bracket, who have been the biggest gainers under economic reforms, are the classes most distanced from the Congress,’’ the paper states. ‘‘That is the reason why economic reforms have not paid the Congress the political dividend it deserves for having initiated them.’’The paper has also analysed, seat-wise, how the party can improve on its present tally of 111 seats in the Lok Sabha. ‘‘In the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress lost 132 seats by under 50,000 votes, 77 of which were lost by under 6 per cent of the votes polled. We should concentrate on these constituencies,’’ it says. The party has identified two categories of seats, one of those in favour of Congress and those against Congress. ‘‘A large number of these seats fall in tribal areas. There is a wave of resentment in the tribal areas running south from Nepal to the Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh,’’ the paper notes, adding that new initiatives must be taken for development of tribals.It also suggests that constituency-wise task forces, with state and central level leaders, should be formed to work on these vulnerable seats. Fifteen per cent minority vote is returning to the party fold and therefore, ‘‘a secular line, combined with a detailed programme of affirmative action in security, identity, education and job, would be the best way of garnering minority support.’’Focus would also be on women. “With a woman president at the helm, showing sensitivity to women issues will increase the women’s vote for the Congress.’’
