Congress ready to walk half-way to Jaya

A lot of water has flown down the Cauvery since then. Political compulsions have overtaken personal vibes and the two `Ammas’ are reaching out to each other, though the relations between them are still far from comfortable.The Congress made a goodwill gesture to Jayalalitha today when it hardened its position on M Karunanidhi and called for all matters related to him in the Jain Commission report to be investigated.

In a memorandum submitted to Home Minister L K Advani, senior Congress leaders insisted that the Government should not leave the matter to the discretion of the independent investigative agencyto be set up, but make sure that it proceeds against the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister in a court of law.

The note tries to rope-in the former Prime Ministers, though the real but unstated, target of the memorandum is M Karunanidhi and the purpose of the missive is to signal to Jayalalitha the Congress’ willingness to meet her halfway.

Jayalalitha was far from satisfied with Sonia’s responses last week, when she spoke to her on the telephone. Jayalalitha is believed to have told her that she had decided to go ahead and withdraw support to the Vajpayee Ministry but before announcing her decision she felt they should work out the modalities of the next Government. Sonia had responded with something to the effect, “First you withdraw and then we will discuss the details.” Jayalalitha tried to talk about the portfolios. Sonia said, again something to the effect,“Not now, only after the Government goes.”

Realising Jayalalitha’s unhappiness with the whole affair, the next day the Congress sent emissaries –N Janardhan Reddy and Jagdish Tytler — to keep its channels open with her, aware that in the long run it will have to be doing business with her. But the unpredictable AIADMK supremo became angry that the party had not considered it fit to send senior leaders to talk to her. She refused to see the duo. Reddy had enjoyed a rapport with her when he was Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh but failed in his mission when he went on behalf of Sitaram Kesri earlier this year to forge an electoral alliance with the AIADMK. The Congress officially disowned the mission, saying that Sonia had not sent the Reddy-Tytler team.

Sonia’s reluctance forced Jayalalitha to backtrack on her plan to topple the Government. With division in her own AIADMK led family — Vaiko, Ramdoss, and Vazhapady Ramamurthy had spoken for continuing support to the Government — Jayalalitha did not want to risk the survival of the BJP Government despite her decision to pull out the plug. She does not want to be worse off than she is, which mighthappen if the Government were to survive and the BJP and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) team up. Assurances of an alternative Government would help her keep her flock together. But she has crossed the point of no return, and the events of the last few days have made this amply clear.

The question is now not one of “whether” but of “when” she will drop the sword which is dangling over the BJP’s head. Aware of this, the BJP has toughened its stand towards her and is tying to mobilise support to offset her 18 MPs. Hence the harsh tone of Vajpayee’s Independence Day speech and Brajesh Mishra’s letter to her.

Sonia is moving with caution. By her extreme reluctance to topple the Government, she is trying to underscore the message that the Congress is not power hungry. She is not interested in running a rag-tag coalition Government which she would be forced to do were Jayalalitha to withdraw support today, though the Congress is better experienced to deal with the likes of her than the BJP which hasmismanaged it.

Meanwhile, the more a Jayalalitha on the warpath can damage the BJP, the better it is for the Congress.

The crucial question is: Will Jayalalitha play ball with the Congress on the time-frame the party wants to follow? That will depend on the chemistry that she and Sonia develop in the days to come.

Forming a Government would mean rapid loss of support that the Congress is otherwise gathering today. Sonia’s plan is to head a Government and go immediately for an election. But she would like to wait for the November elections to four State Assemblies, and she told senior party leaders last week to put all their energies into the State polls. Good showing by the Congress would convince Congressmen to take the plunge for a national election.

P V Narasimha Rao had to face a Jayalalitha on a fast on the Cauvery issue but the Congress managed to defuse it.