Brain drain will get worse, says report

8216;8216;Indian and Chinese students tend to stay on in USA after completing doctoral degrees,8217;8217; Rolf Lehming, director S038;E Indicators told The Indian Express in response to a questionnaire on e-mail. The finding is based on a US survey of earned doctorates.

There is also a warning from the NSB to expect a future crunch in skilled foreign manpower with potential entry limits and foreign competition from other nations.

8216;8216;We must develop more fully our native talent,8217;8217; said NSB chairman Warren Washington in a media statement, releasing the report on May 4.

For a ready reckoner on the sheer number of existing Indians, look at S038;E Indicators 8217;04:

8226; Of Indian S038;E doctorate recipients, the percentage of those with 8216;8216;plans to stay8217;8217; on in USA increased from 85.6 per cent in 1990-93 to 94 per cent in 1998-2001.

Indians with 8216;8216;firm plans to stay8217;8217;8212; due to post-doctoral research appointments or jobs with firms 8212; also went up from 62.6 pc in 1990-93 to 73.2 pc in 1998-2001.

8226; Between 1985-2000, of the 13,000 Indian S038;E doctorate recipients at US universities, 57.8 per cent accepted firm offers to stay on in USA.

Of these, 23.9 per cent were for post-doctoral work, 33.8 per cent for jobs.

8226; In 2001, 77 per cent S038;E doctoral degree recipients from India 70 per cent from China 8216;8216;reported accepting firm offers for employment or post-doctoral research in the US8217;8217;.

Students from South Korea and Taiwan, are also a large community in US but less likely to stay on.

8226; Between 1985-2000, Indian students earned by far the largest number of US doctoral degrees awarded to any foreign group in computer and information sciences.

8226; The primary activity of Indians employed abroad was R038;D or Research and Development: 23.1 per cent.

8226; In 2000, there were 1,96,000 India-born college-educated individuals working in identifiable S038;E jobs in USA. Of these, 19,000 had doctorates.

In contrast, NSB warns that USA has slumped from rank 3 in 1975 to rank 17 today, among nations surveyed in proportion of its 18-24 year-olds earning natural S038;E degrees.

8226; No one source country dominates among individuals whose highest degree achieved is in S038;E. But 14 per cent students are from India, 10 per cent from China.

8226; A decade-long increase in US S038;E doctorates earned by Indian students ended in 1996, followed by four years of decline 8212; especially in engineering 57 per cent and computer sciences 50 per cent. However, the 8216;8216;number of foreign students who had firm plans to remain in USA declined only slightly from its 1996 peak8217;8217;.

An NSB footnote estimates one reason for the drop: 8216;8216;Increasing employment opportunities in IT and software engineering in the US and India may have lessened the incentive for completing a doctoral degree in these fields.8217;8217;

8226; From 1985-2000, students from China, Taiwan, India, South Korea earned more than 50 per cent of S038;E doctoral degrees awarded to foreign students, four times more than students from Europe.

8226; A peak period was 1994-1997 when Indians earned 4,716 S038;E doctoral degrees in the US 8212; 11.5 per cent of those earned by foreign students. From 1998-2001, they dropped to 9.8 per cent or 3,601 S038;E doctoral degree-holders.

Many do return to India after 10-15 years abroad. 8216;8216;We need them back in India,8217;8217; says associate professor, Theoretical Physics Department, Sandeep Trivedi at Mumbai8217;s Tata Institute of Fundamental Research. A Kanpur IITian, Trivedi spent 15 years in the US from 1985 to 1999. 8216;8216;The bottleneck for world-class research in India is not funding but finding required talent,8217;8217; he says. 8216;8216;People are not really willing to work from India, though the gap in R038;D work conditions in USA and India is not as stark as during the early 1990s.8217;8217;

Total student visas issued in 2003 were down by 27 per cent from 2001, other high skill-related visas issued fell by 26 per cent.