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Journalism of Courage
SHIMLA, June 1: As the state goes to the polls on June 3, to fill four assembly seats and elect a new MP from the prestigious Mandi constituency, the Bharatiya Janata Party finds itself placed comfortably barring snow-bound Lahaul- Spiti assembly seat, where the Congress is poised for a close finish with its own potential rebel.
The elections to three assembly segments viz Kinnaur, Lahaul-Spiti and Bharmaur 8212; all in the tribal belt, were postponed in February last along with Mandi Lok Sabha constituency because of inclement weather and closure of the routes due to snowfall. The assembly constituency of Pragpur in Kangra district will also go to polls, simultaneously on June 3. The seat had fallen vacant following death of BJP MLA Virender Kumar, just before the February poll results.
The ruling BJP-HVC combine has an election strength of 33 in the 68-member House, against 30 MLAs of the Congress, it needs only two seats to secure a simple majority in the assembly.
While the Congress, which had a hold over three assembly seats in the tribal belt, besides Mandi Lok Sabha, is struggling to protect its fortress, BJP fighting the elections under completely changed scenario, has an edge over it. The electoral battle, in fact looks more like a by-election than postponed polls. The Congress, aware of its loss in the abrupt postponement of the polls, had lodged its strong protest before the election commission even at that time.
The Himachal Vikas Congress led by former Union communication minister Sukh Ram is supporting the BJP in the polls. Sukh Ram himself was a candidate in Mandi but has now retired from the fray in favour of Maheshwar Singh BHP, who is locked in a straight fight with former chief minister Virbhadra Singh8217;s wife Pratibha Singh.
A new entrant to the electoral fray, Pratibha Singh has not left any stone unturned to secure a victory but continues to face heavy odds.
The BJP sees tremendous improvement in its prospects, both for the assembly and Lok Sabha. Its return to power in the state and centre has almost changed its destiny for good. Had Congress been in power even in the state Pratibha Singh must have been in the position which Maheshwar Singh enjoys now. Even in the assembly polls, the BJP seems to be heading towards stability in the power game.
The Congress, which has refielded Jagat Singh Negi in Kinnaur, is finding himself in troubled waters with two party rebels, including one defiant HVC candidate S. C. Negi. The ruling party which has fielded Chet Ram Negi, is enjoying a definite lead. The presence of HVC candidate, who was supposed to retire under the poll pact, is posing a greater threat to the Congress than the BJP.
In Lahaul-Spiti, the snow-bound constituency, where routes still remain closed, it is a triangular contest with Congress rebel Ravi Thakur queering the pitch for the Congress8217; Raghubir Thakur. The constituency is going to have a close finish, and whosoever gets a major chunk of votes from Spiti cold-desert area will make it. The position of HVC nominee Ram Lal Markande, an educated youth, has also improved after the visit of Chief Minister P. K. Dhumal and Sukh Ram, besides a few HVC ministers.
In the Gaddi-dominated Bharmaur assembly seat, Thakur Singh Bharmauri of Congress is in no better position than his counterpart in Kinnaur both sitting members. Tulsi Ram of BJP enjoys the benefit of his party8217;s return to power. The influence of former chief minister Virbhadra Singh, who had campaigned extensively for the assembly and Lok Sabha as all three tribal assembly segments form part of Mandi might work to some extent for the Lok Sabha seat but for the assembly, the voting trend might be different.The game has not changed much for the Congress in Pragpur, the seat which Congress had lost in February 28 polls.
Having refielded Yog Raj, the Congress had been fighting a grim battle against Nirmla Devi, widow of former MLA Virender Kumar. She has weaved her campaign on sympathy votes. The regional issues also hold key in the traditionally BJP-dominant segment of Kangra belt. Former chief minister Shanta Kumar, MP from Kangra and BJP president Suresh Chandel, MP from Hamirpur, were important campaigners here.
If the poll results go in favour of the BJP, Dhumal will emerge much stronger and would create fresh problems for the Congress leadership in the state.
