Bihar Blink game begins

But fireworks and celebrations outside AICC headquarters at 24, Akbar Road had barely got underway before news from Jharkhand came as an effective dampener. Unlike Haryana, the Congress-JMM combine failed to take advantage of the anti-incumbency factor or the infighting in the ruling BJP between camps of Arjun Munda and Babulal Marandi.

The BJP-JD(U) combine ended up with 36 seats, five short of a majority in the 81-member Assembly. A shortfall that should be made up through support of two MLAs each from the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) and the United Goans Democratic Party (UGDP) as well as two ‘‘rebel’’ BJP MLAs, BJP leaders claimed.

But as expected, the real drama and suspense lies in Bihar which yet again lived up to its reputation of being the most politically volatile state. The ruling RJD, battling a strong current of voter dissatisfaction after 15 years in power, lost over 40 seats.

Despite the severe erosion, RJD supremo Laloo Prasad Yadav was saved from the kind of drubbing that Digvijay Singh in Madhya Pradesh and N Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh received not so long ago.

While Laloo may be the loser in the Bihar elections, the absence of any clear winner has resulted in what is being termed the ‘‘mother of all hung Assemblies’’. And as predicted by pollsters and reporters on the campaign trail, Ram Vilas Paswan has emerged as the most important political entity at this stage in the state.

With trends (on the Election Commission website at midnight) giving the RJD and allies CPI, CPI-M, NCP 83 seats, and the JD(U)-BJP combine 91, no government is possible without Paswan’s 29-member LJP. For the moment, Paswan is sticking to his pre-poll line that he will not back a government that includes either the RJD or the BJP, and would prefer a spell of President’s Rule if no solution to the current deadlock emerges soon.

Paswan knows as well as anyone that the deadlock can be solved if he takes a decision either way. The Congress, which has not managed to retain even the dozen seats it had in the outgoing Assembly, has already declared that it would work for the formation of a ‘‘secular’’ government in both Bihar and Jharkhand.

Congress president Sonia Gandhi met senior party leaders for an hour this evening to take stock. AICC general secretary Ambika Soni said that Laloo Prasad and Paswan were expected to meet Sonia after their arrival here tomorrow.

In Jharkhand, the figures are stacked against it but the possibility of a ‘‘secular’’ government in Bihar is very much alive. Congress leaders are hopeful that Sonia’s ‘‘good rapport’’ with both Laloo Prasad and Paswan might help in efforts to bring the two warring UPA cabinet ministers together.

Once Paswan agrees in principle to the formation of a ‘‘secular’’ government, the ‘‘give and take’’ formula can be worked out, say Congress leaders.

Without waiting for the UPA ‘‘strategy session’’ tomorrow or Paswan’s aye or nay, Laloo has already thrown his hat in the ring. Unfazed by the fall in his tally, Laloo told reporters in Patna that the RJD had emerged as the single largest party and would stake claim to form the government.

By making the first move, Laloo made it clear that unlike Rajiv Gandhi in 1989 who preferred to opt out of the race despite Congress emerging as the single largest party, he was not going to walk away from a fight.

The BJP-JD(U) camp, meanwhile, is also in a ‘‘wait and watch’’ mode and are prepared to seek Paswan’s help if he refuses to join hands with the RJD. BJP general secretary Arun Jaitley as well as JD(U) leaders Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav kept repeating that the ‘‘situation is very fluid in Bihar’’ and evaded questions on whether they would seek the help of Paswan—or even renew their old offer of making him chief minister—if he came over to their side.

In the run-up to the elections, Nitish Kumar repeatedly said that ‘‘a hung Assembly means the return of the Laloo-Rabri regime in Bihar… Even if we get 110 seats, we will not be able to form the government.’’

But there is a distinct change of mood now. With the JD(U)-BJP emerging as the single largest combine, party leaders are unwilling to give up the game without a fight.

‘‘We are waiting for the situation to crystallise,’’ said Jaitley. Asked for a timeframe, Sharad Yadav said, ‘‘It could happen in one hour or it could take several days.’’ Given the messy nature of the verdict—UPA partners at the Centre are at loggerheads in the state and the ‘‘anti-RJD’’ mandate jostles with ‘‘secular’’ concerns for primacy—several days seems more likely.