The Indo-Pak peace process has hit the first roadblock with Pak President General Pervez Musharraf reacting sharply to the statements of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Srinagar and Jammu this week. During his visit, Singh had strongly reiterated the Indian position on the approach to the Kashmir question and down-graded the importance of the Hurriyat in the current peace process. Although much of what Singh said in Srinagar and Jammu should not have either surprised or disappointed Pakistan, it has caused some disquiet here in Pakistan. Musharraf’s remarks to AFP reflect the growing political discomfort here at the perceived Indian reluctance to respond to the new ideas on Kashmir that had been floated by Pakistan in recent weeks. Musharraf is expected to further develop what seem to be his second thoughts on the peace process in an address to an Indo-Pak media conference here on peace and reconciliation in South Asia. Musharraf’s remarks come just days before his Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz arrives in India and holds talks with Singh. And soon after the second round of talks on all subjects on the bilateral agenda, including J&K. The worst-case interpretation here of Singh’s remarks on Kashmir relate to the new methodology of addressing the Kashmir question as well as the role of the Hurriyat in the peace process. On the first issue, the need to posture to the domestic audiences threaten the imperatives of ambiguity as the two sides begin to address the prospects of a final settlement to the Kashmir question. On the role of Hurriyat, India sees the process as a bilateral one with Pakistan. While India is prepared to address some of the concerns of Islamabad in Kashmir, it cannot accept a third seat at the table or even the ghost presence of a third party. While accepting the centrality of the bilateral approach at the summit between Musharraf and the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in January 2004 and all subsequent meetings, Pakistan has tried to bring back the question of ‘‘associating’’ Kashmiris with the peace process. The subtle but critical difference between the two positions has been magnified by the Hurriyat which Pakistan seeks to present as the sole representative of the people of J&K. The Vajpayee government finessed the problem by engaging the Hurriyat in a separate dialogue as part of the political effort at reconciliation in J&K. While rejecting a tri-partite or triangular dialogue involving the Hurriyat, the Vajpayee government was willing to explore the prospects of two simultaneous, but parallel tracks on Kashmir—one with Pakistan and the other with the Hurriyat. The Congress dispensation has been unable to find a level of political comfort with the Hurriyat while the latter has over-reached in recent days to the enormous irritation of the Government. Unless the Hurriyat can demonstrate its sense of independence from Pakistan, New Delhi is now saying, there is little reason to consider it as a factor of any consequence. Does this threaten the peace process? On the face of it, Pakistan has two demands—India must improve the political and security conditions in Kashmir and give a special role for the Hurriyat in the peace process. The signal from New Delhi this week is that the former is possible and the latter is not. The Indian troop reduction in Kashmir, the first since the trouble began in Jammu and Kashmir in the late 1980s, directly met one of the key demands of Pakistan. In Srinagar, Singh hinted that more actions in addressing the concerns of Kashmiris might be possible if Islamabad takes steps towards the dismantling the infrastructure of terrorism on Pakistani soil. Singh also reaffirmed his commitment to open up the Line of Control in J&K, a direct reference to the popular proposal to start a bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad. An early agreement to start that service, Indo-Pak talks on which are due within two weeks on the subject, could make irrelevant the whole question of Hurriyat leaders being allowed to visit Pakistan. If all Kashmiris are allowed to travel between the divided parts of J&K, Hurriyat could in fact buy permanent passes on the bus. Pakistan can indeed build on the Indian troop reduction, take steps to dismantle communication centres and launch pads for infiltrators, and accept the Indian proposals for cross-LoC/border trade and joint development of tourism. India, can in turn, take such additional steps as an internal ceasefire in Jammu and Kashmir and repeal of some of the draconian laws in Kashmir. All this could lead to a positive environment to discuss a final settlement of the Kashmir question. But before all this can happen, the immediate need is for New Delhi and Islamabad to take a deep breath, avoid further rhetoric, revive the back channel contacts to remove misperceptions and ensure the peace process is not put in jeopardy. It is Musharraf’s call.
