Behenji-Bahu dynamics

The fact that the Congress8217;s proposed tie-up with Mayawati8217;s BSP continues to be a non-starter indicates two things: One, that Sonia Gandhi8217;s party is still to prove itself adept at the coalitional game 8212; partly because of its conspicuous lack of presence and bargaining chips in the key state of Uttar Pradesh. Indeed, Mayawati8217;s on-again, off-again politics has put the Congress8217;s coalition dharma to its toughest test yet. Two, that Mayawati obviously finds it politically expedient to keep her options open until after the elections.

For the Congress, this is bad news because the BSP8217;s voters once formed part of its own base and the growth of that party has been in tandem with its own dramatic decline, not just in Uttar Pradesh but in states like Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. Consider, for instance, the manner the BSP had wrested Gauriganj 8212; an assembly seat that fell in the Congress stronghold of Amethi 8212; from the Congress last March. While the Congress had got 31,218 votes that time, the BSP8217;s Jang Bahadur managed to notch 38,722 votes. This result demonstrates the multiplier effect that a BSP-Congress alliance could have on the latter8217;s prospects. But while the Congress definitely stands to lose from its tie-up with the BSP not materialising, the question is whether Mayawati8217;s singleton approach will benefit her party. Difficult to say. The very fact that she took great pains at her recent Lucknow rally to reassure her Muslim voters and to repudiate accusations that her party takes large sums for tickets, indicates that she is conscious of the dangers posed by her hardline stance, to her project of expanding the BSP8217;s base beyond the committed Dalit voter.

Given these moves and counter-moves, UP is once again set to emerge as the heartland in these elections. The BJP is looking to it to consolidate its national presence and future prospects. Mulayam Singh Yadav is fighting to protect his government in the state through the unstable times of electioneering and to position himself as king-maker or even king in the next dispensation. Mayawati nurses ambitions of using her base here to project herself as a prime ministerial candidate. As she put it: 8220;Why can8217;t a Dalit ki beti become prime minister?8221; And the Congress is desperate to revive its presence in UP in order to emerge on the national stage. Yet, despite the enormous stakes various parties have in the state, UP itself has got precious little in return by way of good governance or empowering politics. That is its tragedy.