Battleground Iowa

The two major US political parties — the Democratic Party and the Republican Party — use popular state-by-state elections to select their nominees for the presidential election, a complex process that has evolved over the 20th century. The parties’ nominees are officially elected by state party delegates at the parties’ national conventions, held every four years, although they are traditionally determined beforehand.

• What are conventions?

The parties’ national conventions are large meetings of elected delegates and party leaders at which the parties’ nominees for president are officially elected. They are held at a predetermined venue during the summer of the election year. The 2008 Republican convention will be held on September 1-4 in St. Paul, Minnesota, while the Democratic convention will be held August 25-28 in Denver. Delegates officially vote for their parties’ nominees at the convention, but the nominees are in fact decided well before, with losing party rivals traditionally withdrawing from the race and endorsing the winner in a show of party unity. The last time a convention began without a pre-determined party nominee for president was at the 1976 Republican National Convention.

• How are delegates to the convention selected?

Party delegates, who are pledged to support a certain candidate, are selected in a series of state-by-state elections. In actuality, it is the results of these elections that determine the parties’ nominees for president. Most states hold one of two types of elections: caucuses or primaries. Caucuses are district-level meetings where party members meet and select delegates to back a certain candidate, while primaries are direct elections that result in a proportional distribution of delegates among the candidates. As the rules for primaries and caucuses are drawn up by each state’s party leadership, they can vary widely depending on both state and party. Some state primaries are open to all state residents of voting age, whereas others are limited to registered party members only.

• Why do elections in some states matter more than others?

The states to hold the earliest primaries or caucuses have the greatest sway in determining the outcome of the complex nomination process. Iowa is the first electoral test, with this year’s caucus scheduled for today, January 3. The small northeastern state of New Hampshire traditionally holds the first primary, with this year’s scheduled for January 8. New Hampshire and Iowa are therefore the key battleground states. Other states to hold early primaries or caucuses include South Carolina, Nevada, Michigan and Florida.

• At what stage is a party’s nominee for president determined, in practice?

In theory, a candidate will clinch his or her party’s nomination only by winning a majority of delegates to his party’s convention, which will determine the outcome of the official vote. In practice, however, a candidate wins a nomination by gaining sufficient political momentum in state caucuses and primaries, so as to be seen as a clear winner by the media and the public. In 2004, for example, John Kerry was widely seen as having won the Democratic nomination for president after winning a series of key state elections on March 3. But at the time, he still lacked the number of delegates required to officially clinch the party’s nomination (as many states had not yet held their primaries or caucuses) and his chief competitor, John Edwards, had not yet withdrawn from the race. In 2008, at least 20 states — including the large states of New York, California and Illinois — will hold their primaries or caucuses by February 5, which means that both parties’ nominees for presidents will likely be determined by that date. Primaries and caucuses held after this date will most likely be irrelevant.

• When do losing candidates withdraw from the race?

The point at which a candidate withdraws varies, depending upon the candidate’s political platform, the possibility of his or her winning, and financial considerations. Presidential candidates who fare poorly in caucuses or primaries, particularly in their home states, traditionally withdraw from the race and urge their delegates to instead support another candidate, usually the leader. As a result, official voting at the party convention tends to be close to unanimous.

• Where do nomination races stand now?

In a largely unpredictable political environment, the January 3 Iowa caucus will be crucial. Currently, polls indicate Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards to be in a three-way tie among Democrats, while Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are the main contenders on the Republican side. Clinton and Obama are also tied in New Hampshire polls for Democrats, while Romney appears to be leading Rudy Giuliani among Republicans. Nationally, Clinton leads Obama by a wide margin, while Huckabee and Giuliani lead other Republican candidates.

The writer researches US foreign policy towards South Asia in Washington DC