Avoiding a national disaster

For the Chinese the word crisis' symbolises two things. Problem and opportunity. The Kargil flare-up needs to be analysed with this appr...

For the Chinese the word crisis’ symbolises two things. Problem and opportunity. The Kargil flare-up needs to be analysed with this approach in mind, with a clear perception of what is happening, and more importantly, what our response should be.

The possibility of a 1962-like disaster cannot be excluded if India fails to perceive the Pakistani compulsions and gameplan. Against a proactive enemy, we are already at least ten years behind in our preparations, despite our realisation of the TOPAC setting and all the other indicators which have stared us in the face. After the success of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the inevitable diversion of the force towards Kashmir has emerged in its most sinister manner, with the indirect approach’ of activating Kargil, Batalik and the Turtuk Sectors. Pakistan has clearly struck in an area of Indian complacency.

The Pak aggression and its contents after so much elaborate preparation also gives them a great advantage as it amounts to a spoiling attack’. Pakistan hasalways sensed the vulnerability of the PoK Northern Area extending from Skardu towards Gilgit, militarily the nerve centre of Asia. A purposeful thrust along the Indus and Shyok river valleys would be hard for the Pakistanis to stop. If India has the political will and is prepared to work out the logistic infrastructure and divert adequate force levels, this lucrative strategic option would also eliminate the decade-and-a-half Siachin problem.

Pakistan is not a country which has an army, but an army which happens to have a country. Its obsession with Kashmir is not based on logic or strategic reasoning, but is a continuation of Jinnah’s direct action’, proactive mindset.

The overall Pakistani gameplan has been visible since 1989-90 when they upped the low intensity war in the Valley. The Indian response to thwarting the insurgency was quantitative, flooding the region with security forces. Better quality of weaponry and communication facilities with the externally controlled terrorist took its gruesomeand tragic toll. This prolonged exposure where attrition and tension eat their way into the system, has also bred complacency and fatigue in commanders and troops. This is perhaps the only reason why the visible build-up across Kargil did not set off alarm bells earlier.

The biggest opportunity that the Kargil crisis provides is that of a national awakening. It may not be too late even now to take remedial steps. Commonsense indicates that a credible strike force be set up in the Ladakh region as a counter to Pakistani designs and every effort be made to refurbish the quality of weapons and equipment of the forces.

The defensive phase of containing the Kargil intrusions should logically be carried forward to a period of intensive training and preparation. If Pakistan realises the firm resolve on the Indian side to strike back deep and hard and at a time of our choosing, it will have to call off its bluff. The nuclear threat should not deter us as even Pakistan’s fanatical military leadership can see whatthat would lead to.

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India could readjust its command and control by shifting the Command Headquarters to Srinagar thereby releasing the Corps HQ for the Ladakh Region. India should systematically prepare the armed forces and the public at large with a proper employment of info-war techniques. The IAF also needs time to modify its aircraft for the mountains. It is obvious that high-speed jets have limitations in this terrain.

Most crucial is the rebuilding of the self-esteem of the Fighting Man. The national leadership must surely realise that they cannot take the human factor for granted. Indian troops, given time and resources, can do the needful even against impossible odds.

What is being suggested is not going to war, but preparing for it with a firm resolve. Only then can we really avert a war and a national disaster. It may not be too late to start this process even now. Even world opinion cannot fault this approach.

The writer is a retired Major General