At helm, SP’s trump card in UP: Snap polls

According to sources, it is to the SP’s advantage to surprise the Congress before it gets its act together and requests the Governor to dissolve the Assembly and go for polls. The SP is banking on the present disarray in the Congress camp, and more importantly, its dismal performance in the last Assembly polls, where it lost its deposit in 302 seats, out of a total of 403 seats.

While the SP-led government, under Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav, is not under any threat at the moment, it is under tremendous pressure with the Congress actively wooing its alliance partner Ajit Singh and the Rashtriya Lok Dal. For the moment, the alliance seems to be in place, for the RLD has got its price for continued loyalty to the SP—two seats in the legislative council, one seat in the Rajya Sabha and the continuance of its MP, Anuradha Choudhury, in the State Cabinet until the end of the stipulated six-month period.

The SP also enjoys a comfortable majority in the House, despite having only 187 MLAs out of a total of 404— over the months, the strength of the House has steadily come down to touch 391 today. In such a House, the SP requires only 196 MLAs, which it can get without the RLD and Congress support, from the support of 16 Independents (five are already in the Cabinet).

One irritant for the SP, however, could be the fate of the breakaway BSP group of 45 MLAs, on whose strength it touched the 196 figure. Almost all of them are in the Cabinet today. But with the new rule of sprucing the size of a Cabinet being enforced on July 7, Yadav will have to use all his persuasive skills to keep his flock together without the fruits of power.

But, as an SP source says, ‘‘The breakaway BSP MLAs have merged with the SP, where will they go now without being expelled from the House?’’

Sources say the Congress is banking on a new Governor appointed by its government, to pave the way for President’s Rule in the State. The party hopes to go in for a poll after the stage has been set for such an eventuality. However, there are fears of an outcry from Congress allies like the DMK and the Left, which have been overly sensitive to the issue of misusing Article 356, where state governments are arbitrarily dismissed for ‘‘unconstitutional’’ behaviour.

Meanwhile, in the latest round of shadow-boxing, it was the turn of SP general-secretary Amar Singh to call Rahul Gandhi a ‘‘bachcha’ (kid). On the other hand, Congress chief Sonia Gandhi continued the tirade against the dismal law and order record of the Mulayam Yadav Government in the state and also rapped the government for the ‘‘power and water crisis.’’