Aged Cong tries to cash in on UF’s failures

The image of the UF Government has dipped to an all time low with its inability even to get the insurance and presidential bills through last week. The exercise should have been a routine affair but the goof up has reinforced as never before the impression that the UF is not capable of governance. Aware that elections are not far off, the Left is trying to distance itself from the UF. It does not want to carry the weight of the UF’s follies on its shoulders. But it is not likely to cause the fall of the Government, and be blamed for the consequences.

The natural beneficiary of the breakup of the Janata Dal is the Congress more than the BJP. It will gain further in Karnataka at the expense of the Janata Dal, and is likely to maintain its position in Orissa because the Janata Dal is not able to get its act together after Biju Patnaik. It has already tied up with the Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar.

On the other side, the BJP which was on the upswing is facing problems. The party has plateaued for the moment. The resignation of Madan Lal Khurana as BJP vice-president after an unseemly power struggle has dimmed its image as a principled and cohesive outfit, which had given it an edge over others.Prolonged bickerings and drift in the UF can work either way. Fed up with uncertainty and non-governance, the middle class can turn towards the tried and tested Congress, which good, bad or indifferent can at least rule.

The Congress suffers from three disabilities. It has lost its vote base because it does not know what it stands for, it is as much of a house divided as other parties and it lacks a charismatic leader.

The party tried to go back to its old moorings in Calcutta, at least in words. There was all the rhetoric about Dalits and OBCs and a poorward shift in the context of economic reforms.

But when it came to the crunch, like last time, there was no Dalit or OBC or women elected in the CWC election. Only one person in the eight member `official’ panel, H Hanumanathappa, did not make it and he is a SC leader from Karnataka. This is hardly likely to send a salutary message.

The upper caste character of the party has become clear. At the time of writing, there were indications of a wipe-out of the south. The balance will shift once again to the north and this will create its own problems within the party because the Congress is non-existent in the north, and the south has enjoyed power in recent years.

The party expressed regrets for its inability to protect the Babri Masjid in an attempt to assuage the hurt feelings of the Muslims. The language might have been stronger but for the fact, which Narasimha Rao pointed out to Pranab Mukherji, that the criticism would be a reflection on all senior leaders, including Kesri, who were in the Cabinet at the time. And that it would give a stick to the BJP and others to beat the Congress with in the elections.

Kesri’s relentless attacks against the Left is an attempt to secure the secular space in the polity. He would like to displace the Communist parties from their position of leadership of the secular forces by projecting them as no better than the Congress. This will go to reduce their anti-Congressism, at least that’s `chacha’s’ calculation.

By harking back only to the Babri Masjid, the party showed an inability to come out of an old mindset. It revealed a lack of awareness about the aspirations of a new generation of Muslims. They want a share in the economic cake as much as any other community, and are fed up that parties try and satisfy them only with religious slogans. The real problem with the Congress lies with its leaders, and their flabbiness. Creatures of comfort, they are no longer interested in taking up people’s problems and working in the field.

For all his skills of political management, Kesri does not have the stamina to go round the country. Nor does he have the charisma. How quickly the Congress gets itself ready for polls will depend on Kesri’s skills to present a united front, and take everyone along now that the CWC elections are over. Narasimha Rao’s downward journey started when he refused to accept the election results and maneuvered to get Arjun Singh and Sharad Pawar to resign.

Mamata Bannerji’s parallel Congress is a major setback for the party, because it goes to weaken what has been the Congress’ strong point that unlike the JD, the party hangs together even when buffeted around by differences. The Congress president, caught in a dilemma, has for the moment refused to give into demands for her expulsion.

The real boost for the Congress worker came with the possibility that Sonia Gandhi might campaign for the party. This was the message they got from her appearance at the plenary. She came onto the Congress platform as a member for the first time, sat on the dais, made a prepared speech, and attempted to identify with India by her constant `we’ and `our’.

This was more than just an attempt to keep herself relevant in the Congress which allows her a certain influence in Government. The centre of power in the Congress will shift now from 7, Purana Qila Road to 10, Janpath, and this could tie Kesri’s hands in relation to its support to the Gujral Government.

Sonia’s value lies in her ability to enthuse the Congress worker who has been demoralised. She can also make a difference to the party’s poll prospects in UP, where the upper castes, so far with the BJP, are chafing at the treatment Mayawati is giving them. She is also expected to make a difference in the southern states. Her involvement may compel the minorities to have a fresh look at the Congress.

But even Sonia cannot wield the magic wand for Congress. She could at best help the party emerge as the single largest entity, and that is all that the Congressmen can hope for today.