After Centre, ripples likely in state over Pratibha selection

The choice of Pratibha Patil as the UPA nominee for the President may have astonished political pundits, but it has, in all likelihood..

The choice of Pratibha Patil as the UPA nominee for the President may have astonished political pundits, but it has, in all likelihood, triggered a political upheaval in Maharashtra. It might bring about some changes in the equation between political parties in the state before the 2009 Assembly polls.

Congress President Sonia Gandhi insisted on a candidate from Maharashtra for the presidential polls and decided on Patil after considering Sushilkumar Shinde, Shivraj Patil and Nirmala Deshpande. The NCP sees it as a political ploy to pre-empt Sharad Pawar from realising his dream of becoming the Prime Minister in the future8212;both the President and the Prime Minister cannot be from the same state in India.

The NCP is already in the election mode to prepare for the next Assembly polls. Its state leaders have announced that the party would come to power on its own, without having to seek alliance with the Congress. It has even floated a new social outfit, the Dalit, Muslim, OBC Ekta Manch, to consolidate its position among these communities and prevent them from voting for the Congress.

The Shiv Sena, which has endorsed the NCP opinion on the selection of Pratibha Patil as the UPA nominee, is in a catch-22 situation. When Shivraj Patil8217;s name was being considered, Sena chief Bal Thackeray had ridiculed him. He had said that the Sena would not support him just because he was a Marathi manoos. Thackeray had posed questions to Patil on what the latter had done for Maharashtra; what he had done to solve the Maharashtra-Karnataka border row; and what would he do on the mercy plea of Mohammed Afzal.

With Pratibha Patil8217;s name being finalised, the Sena is perplexed as she is a woman and a Marathi manoos and a non-controversial politician. The party is vacillating between backing her and supporting Bhairon Singh Shekhawat. Thackeray has not posed any questions to Pratibha Patil and has given indication that he is not happy with Shekhawat. Recently, at a party rally, Thackeray even gave a call to his sainiks to ensure that the party comes to power in the next Assembly polls on its own without the support of the BJP. Though the BJP leaders like Gopinath Munde have dismissed it as 8220;playing to the gallery8221; and hoped that the Sena would back Shekhawat, recent events have revealed that all is not well between the Saffron partners after the death of Pramod Mahajan. The BJP would also face its first Assembly polls in 2009 without Mahajan.

The NCP and the MNS are backing Pratibha Patil.

Taking into consideration the political situation, the vacillation of the Sena is significant. There is a likelihood of new political equations emerging. The Sena may form an alliance with the NCP. The Dalit leaders supporting the NCP may break away to support the Congress, which might emerge with a new alignment of forces.

Adding to all this is Mayawati8217;s successful social engineering in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls, which has already made all parties in Maharashtra to take note and rethink about their political strategies.