50 years of NATO — Kosovo’s a defining moment, say analysts

WASHINGTON, April 21: NATO's credibility and future will be on the line this weekend as the leaders of the North Atlantic alliance celebr...

WASHINGTON, April 21: NATO’s credibility and future will be on the line this weekend as the leaders of the North Atlantic alliance celebrate its 50th anniversary in Washington against the backdrop of as-yet inconclusive strikes on Yugoslavia, experts say.

“If NATO cannot deal with a tinpot dictator in the middle of Europe, what good is NATO for?” asked Ivo Daalder of the Brookings Institution, referring to Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic. “Certainly not in defending against such global threats as proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, international terrorism, interruption of energy supplies.”

A growing number of US politicians and analysts believe that NATO, the military alliance that overcame the Soviet bloc in the Cold War, cannot afford to lose face in its first shooting war in 50 years against tiny Serbia. “Kosovo is a defining moment for NATO,” Daalder said, adding his voice to the chorus of others who worry that a failure in Kosovo might mean the end of the alliance. “We putNATO at stake, that is we the allies, and many are predicting that this will be the funeral of NATO, not the celebration,” influential Republican Senator Richard Lugar said on Sunday.

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“This is very serious,” he said, adding prognosticators also see Kosovo as potentially the last time NATO would get involved militarily to stop ethnic cleansing or other “barbarous actions”.

“There is absolutely no alternative but an all-out win,” said Elizabeth Dole, a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, pressing for deployment of NATO ground troops to overwhelm Milosevic’s forces sooner rather than later. “I think NATO is on the line now,” said former national security adviser Brent Scowcroft. “If we do not succeed here, NATO will be severely strained if not fractured.’

‘Some have not hidden their pessimism as the Kosovo operation grinds on with Milosevic holding his ground after nearly a month of intense bombing. “It is pretty obvious that Milosevic is achieving his objectives, which areto remove the Kosovars from the area and to ethnically cleanse,” said Senator John McCain, another presidential hopeful. “Our objectives, as stated, are to remove him and put in an international peacekeeping force and return the refugees. None of that has happened,” he said.

But criticism of NATO’s campaign and its ostensible lack of hard results so far is not limited to Republicans. “So far NATO has failed to achieve even its minimal objective…to protect the Kosovar Albanians and thereby to prevent a humanitarian nightmare,” said Daalder of the Brookings Institution who is also a former member of President Bill Clinton’s national security team.

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Daalder though sees some positive aspects of the air strikes. “Despite the fact that NATO is losing its first major military engagement, it’s noteworthy that the allies have demonstrated a remarkable degree of unity,” he said, referring to the solid stance taken by the 19 member countries.