200 plus, cry Comrades, but ominous whispers of ‘low margin’ all over

In contrast, the most frequently heard line—be it in village, mofussil town or big city—is “‘ebar margin kom hobe (this time the margin will decrease)”. But no one is either willing or able to answer the question “koto kom? (by how much?)” and therein lies the suspense.

But one thing is clear. No matter what the final tally, the results of West Bengal’s 14th assembly elections will not only have an impact on the overall ideological and political direction of the CPI(M), it is also likely to affect the Manmohan Singh-led UPA government at the Centre.

If the Left Front defies anti-incumbency yet again and improves its tally, the reforms-friendly line pursued by Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee is certain to get a boost. It will also make it easier for the Prime Minister to deflect criticism of his policies from the Left. If, on the other hand, the Left Front faces some erosion (a drop of 20 seats or so), the ideological debate within the party—one that has implications for the Kerala state unit too—is likely to intensify. And if the Buddhadeb government is dealt a severe jolt—a possibility that both the Left and seasoned local political observers here dismiss as outlandish but which, nevertheless, cannot be discounted altogether—a complete rethink on the nature of the CPI(M)’s “engagement” with liberalisation and globalisation could be very much on the anvil.

The Left’s confidence and the pollsters’ prediction of a LF tally of around 200 seats—give or take a few—is based on three factors. First, the lack of opposition unity on the ground and the complete absence of a “viable alternative”.

The CPI(M) leaders point out that in 2001, the Trinamool Congress and the Congress had joined hands and there was palpable support for Mamata Banerjee—to the extent that she flashed the victory sign the day the polls ended and asked reporters to meet her at Writers’ Building after the results were out. This time, however, her campaign was very subdued and even her erstwhile supporters have been disappointed with her “maverick” ways. Besides, as Anzar Ahmad of Park Circus pointed out, a substantial chunk of Muslim voters who had switched to Trinamool in the past, are deeply resentful of the party’s tie-up with the BJP.

The second “pro-Left” factor, party insiders insist, is that despite the adverse effects of liberalisation on sections of Bengal’s populace, the Left Front has done a lot of work in rural Bengal where the party’s awesome organisation machinery remains intact. “We are not depending on the middle-class urban vote which is too miniscule and unreliable in any case. It is our rural base and our strong organisation among the mofussil middle class—school and college teachers, state government employees, service sector employees—that will ensure our victory,” a CPI(M) state committee member insisted.

But although the so-called party “hardliners”—those who harbour misgivings against the speed and manner in which the state government has wooed private investment—scoff at the prospects of getting the elite’s vote, many CPI(M) leaders are banking on the pro-liberalisation vote as the third factor in their favour.

A senior leader said: “For the first time, the Rajasthani community and the upper middle class are coming towards us. The government’s success in attracting new industry to the state, the flourishing IT sector and the growth of a new service industry has given a sense of hope to the youth, and we expect a chunk of the new voters to back us this time.”

But the high percentage of voting and the silent nature of the vote have the potential to drive all “normal” calculations awry. The almost universal praise for the Election Commission’s role was heard wherever we went, the repeated mention of the possibility of “poriborton” this time, and the constant refrain that “margin kom hobe” may have been voiced by disgruntled voters who have always been against the Left in any case. Whether they reflect a much deeper, statewide sentiment—one not captured by the exit polls—will be known only on Thursday. Till then, it is crossed fingers and an eerie suspense.

manini.chatterjee@expressindia.com