Drought insulation

If one were to compare with past droughts, the year-on-year decline amounted to 7 per cent each in 2009-10 (from 234.47 mt to 218.11 mt) and 2004-05 (from 213.19 mt to 198.36 mt), and 17.9 per cent in 2002-03 (from 212.85 mt to 174.77 mt). The last time the country had back-to-back droughts was in 1986-87 and 1987-88. Then, too, the production drop between 1985-86 and 1987-88 was higher at 6.7 per cent (from 150.44 mt to 140.35 mt).

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This relative insulation from deficient monsoons can be attributed to increased access to irrigation facilities, planting of shorter-duration varieties less prone to moisture stress, and timely meteorological forecasts enabling better crop planning and preparedness among both the Centre and state governments. The effects of these were seen especially this time, with the Met Department issuing drought warnings well in advance.

It is only in oilseeds where a real production fall of almost 20 per cent has taken place. But even here, the dip has been more in groundnut and soyabean, both predominantly monsoon-dependent kharif crops. It has been less for rapeseed-mustard, which is grown in the rabi season with nearly three-fourths crop area under irrigation.