Normal or above rainfall over most parts of the country in July, says IMD

“Both the weather models and past statistics indicate that the country will receive normal or above rainfall during this month,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD.

Whenever June rainfall has been below normal during 20 of the 25 years since a century, the monthly rainfall during the following July over the country was above normal, the IMD chief said.

There will be favourable ocean conditions during July in the form of neutral Indian Ocean Dipole and active Madden Jullian Oscillation — both of which regulate the intra-seasonal rainfall over the country.

Rainfall during June this year had ended remaining – 11 per cent, with some of the major contributory factors being stalled monsoon advance and MJO, which was not in a favourable phase to aid the monsoons. Moreover, the number of low pressure affected days was three for the one event which emerged in the north Bay of Bengal during the fag end of June. Whereas, normally, the country witnesses at least three such systems during the onset month, the IMD officials said.

India received the lowest June rainfall this year since 2020 — the third consecutive year when the country’s rainfall in this month was below average. The all-India rainfall for the season, which commenced exactly a month ago, stood at 147.2 mm and this was 11 per cent short of normal.

Being the onset month, the monsoon does not cover the whole of India and some rainfall deficit is normal. June rainfall amounts to 15 per cent of the country’s total southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall of 880mm (1971-2020 data).

This season, the Southwest Monsoon arrived over Kerala on May 30 and progressed on time up until Maharashtra, where it advanced around June 9. Thereafter, the weak monsoon currents and the absence of favourable synoptic systems stalled the monsoon advance over the Eastern states of West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, and Bihar along with areas of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh.

Subsequently, many of these states suffered extended heatwave conditions late in June. Warm nights added to the overall hot conditions over the North and Northwest India regions last month. Finally, it was only in the last week of June when the monsoon advance picked pace.

India’s rainfall deficit during June was mainly contributed by the delayed monsoon onset, by a week to 10 days, over Jharkhand (-61 per cent), Bihar (-52 per cent), Uttarakhand (-49 per cent), Haryana (-46 per cent), Uttar Pradesh (-34 per cent), Gujarat (-30 per cent), Chhattisgarh (-28 per cent), Odisha (-27 per cent), and Kerala (-25 per cent).

In June, a rainfall deficit was reported from 17 states whereas normal or above rainfall was recorded over 19 states, according to the data by the IMD.

Presently, the Southwest Monsoon is in its active phase with multiple weather systems aiding good rainfall over large areas of the country. There are cyclonic circulations, each, prevailing over East Jharkhand, North Assam, and Central Madhya Pradesh. Two troughs are running between the Arabian Sea and Northwest Bihar and the other from North Assam to North Odisha — all these have rejuvenated the monsoon over north and eastern India regions, the IMD officials said.

On Monday, the monsoon further progressed into more areas of Rajasthan, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh and some areas of Punjab. The Northern Limit of Monsoon passed through Jaisalmer, Sirsa, Rajpura, Haryana.

During the next two to three days, there is a high possibility that the monsoon will cover the entire country against its normal date of July 15.

After experiencing June’s second wettest day in 90 years, rainfall will continue to lash Delhi till Wednesday. Over Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, and Punjab, the IMD has warned of heavy rainfall (64.4-115 mm in 24 hours) on July 3 and 4.

Along the country’s west coast, too, the ongoing rainfall activity shall continue. The Met department has said that Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, and Kerala will receive heavy to very heavy rainfall during the week ahead. These regions have been receiving widespread rainfall for a week now.