‘Above’ normal rainfall over India in September: IMD

“Above normal rainfall is forecast over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Delhi, east Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Telangana, Odisha, West Bengal, Tripura, along the west coastal areas, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala. There are chances of landslides and mudslides , precautions must be taken,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general , IMD.

On the contrary, there will be subdued rainfall activity over Ladakh, Bihar, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, south interior Karnataka, Telangana and Tamil Nadu this month.

After bountiful rainfall during August, steady rainfall activity is expected to continue over large geographical areas of the country during the first fortnight of September, the IMD said. This will be particularly realised over central and north peninsular India. There are chances of extremely heavy (over 200mm in 24-hours) rainfall over Gujarat, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh till mid September.

As like August, this month, too, shall see an active Bay of Bengal which will churn out multiple low pressure systems during the first three weeks, the IMD’s weather models suggested.

“These low pressure systems will emerge from the north Bay of Bengal and move west-northwestwards across central India and cause widespread heavy to very heavy intensity rainfall along its track. Central and northwest India and areas located along the foothills of the Himalayas will receive good rainfall,” explained Mohapatra.

Climatologically, the retreat of the southwest monsoon commences around September 15 but with frequent systems likely to emerge from the Bay of Bengal, the IMD officials did not comment on the possible monsoon withdrawal dates this year. This season, rainfall was below normal over the country only during June.

On global weather , La Nina conditions are most likely to emerge towards the end of September. Its impact on the ongoing monsoon will be negligible, as the season is nearing a draw. Weather models have suggested that the Indian Ocean Dipole will remin in its neutral phase this month.