IMD: Aug-Sept rainfall to be normal, but on ‘negative side’

In other words, the rainfall in the second half of the monsoon season is likely to be less than 100 per cent. July unexpectedly produced 13 per cent above normal rainfall, with many parts of the country receiving good rainfall. The east and northeastern region was the only one with low rainfall during the month, receiving 32 per cent below normal rains. Importantly, southern peninsular region, which had a 45 per cent deficiency in June, got adequately compensated in July, and now has 5 per cent above normal rains for the season.

July and August are the rainiest months for the country, followed by September and June. The months of August and September, together, produce about 422 mm of rainfall, of which about 260 mm is expected in August.

This year, August is expected to be the drier of the two remaining months, in percentage terms. The IMD said August rainfall could be below 94 per cent of long period average, which means it would go below the normal range. But most areas along and adjacent to the Himalayas, east central India and some parts of east and northeast India can expect good rains during the month.

Peninsular India, western and central India are likely to receive subdued rainfall, not just in August but for the remaining half of the season, IMD said.

The development of El Nino conditions in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean is expected to begin having an impact on the Indian monsoon. In general, El Nino tends to suppress monsoon rainfall over India. “Currently, weak El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest climate models indicate that the El Nino conditions are likely to intensify further and continue up to early next year,” IMD said.

The high quantity of rainfall recorded in July was also the result of very large number of extreme rainfall events. The IMD said the 205 incidents of extremely heavy rainfall was the highest in the last five years. Also, many more stations recorded such incidents than in previous years.