Lancet study says a third of India will be obese by 2050: What’s driving the obesity epidemic?

Why the numbers matter

This projected increase is concerning considering that half of the world’s obese and overweight adults lived in eight countries, including India, in 2021. The study says that increasing prevalence of obesity in low and middle income countries — combined with persistent childhood malnutrition and pervasive infectious diseases — can cripple healthcare systems with an added burden of disease. The study goes on to say that childhood undernutrition also triggers adaptations such as accumulation of energy in fat tissues leading to obesity in adulthood. This increases the risk of early onset of a host of lifestyle disorders such as Type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and certain cancers.

The flip-side is the increasing obesity among children as well. The prevalence of obesity and overweight among boys in India increased from 0.46 crore in 1990, to 1.3 crore in 2021, and is projected to increase to 1.6 crore in 2050. Among girls, it has increased from 0.45 crore in 1990, to 1.24 crore in 2021, and projected to increase to 1.44 core in 2050, according to the study.

Why is obesity increasing?

One of the key reasons driving the obesity epidemic is the increase in consumption of processed foods high in salt, sugar and fat. “Multinational food and beverage corporations and fast-food chains are shifting their investments from high income countries to low and middle income countries, where population growth, improvement in per-capita income and weaker regulations have created favourable markets for expansion. Between 2009 and 2019, the largest annual growth in ultra-processed food and beverage sales per capita was observed in Cameroon, India, and Vietnam,” the study said.

Dr Aparna Govil Bhasker, who leads the scientific committee for Obesity and Metabolic Surgery Society of India, says, “Increasing urbanisation has led to reduced physical activity, longer commute times, and desk-bound jobs.A shift towards calorie-dense, processed foods high in refined carbohydrates, trans fats and sugars has significantly contributed to weight gain. – Rising work-related stress, poor sleep, and mental health disorders have been linked to obesity.”

What needs to be done?

The study says that current policies are unlikely to halt the tide of the obesity epidemic because only 40 per cent of the countries had an operational policy, strategy or action plan to address it. This policy coverage was reduced to just 10 per cent in low and middle income countries, according to the study. The study also added that most interventions to address obesity had been studied in high-income settings and there is a need for evidence on effective obesity interventions from low-income settings as well.

“Obesity must be officially recognized as a major non-communicable disease (NCD) and its prevention and management should be integrated into India’s public health policies. A comprehensive National Obesity Programme should include awareness campaigns, school-based interventions, workplace wellness programmes, access to treatment, taxation on unhealthy foods and so on. Establishing a national registry to track obesity trends, outcomes, and interventions is important,” says Dr Bhasker.