Modi and Trump resolve to narrow gap, seize opportunities — challenge is to get things done fast

With President Trump set to visit India later this year to attend the Quad summit, the two sides have given themselves a few months to implement many of the ambitious goals they outlined this week. Unlike in the past where the gap between the promise and performance of US-India relations has been large, there will be a big premium this time on getting things done, and quickly.

On illegal immigration, the two sides have widened the debate to “aggressively address” the source of the problem – the cruel human trafficking between the two nations. Modi and Trump agreed, according to the joint statement issued after the talks, to take “strong action against bad actors, criminal facilitators, and illegal immigration networks to promote mutual security for both countries.”

On the legal immigration of Indian talent, the joint statement “emphasized that the evolution of the world into a global workplace calls for putting in place innovative, mutually advantageous and secure mobility frameworks”. Translated into plain English, it means the convergence of the US need to import tech talent from India and Delhi’s interest in securing more visas for its students, professionals, businessmen and visitors.

On the contentious issue of trade and tariffs, Modi and Trump decided to take a positive approach and set themselves an ambitious annual bilateral trade target of $500 billion. They also gave themselves time to negotiate a bilateral trade deal by this autumn, when Trump is expected to visit Delhi. The two sides do have a negotiating record in Trump’s first term (2107-21) and it should be easy to pick up those threads and have a reasonable agreement ready by the time Trump arrives later this year.

The talks with Trump also plugged some of the political mistrust that emerged in the last days of the Biden Administration. To be sure, President Joe Biden and his top advisers vigorously pushed forward the agenda of bilateral cooperation. But Delhi believes sections of the Biden Administration and establishment were fomenting anti-Modi campaigns in India and were part of the destabilisation in Bangladesh last year.

The Modi government and the BJP’s interlocutors in Washington are Trump and the MAGA movement (Make America Great Again) that are actively battling the “globalist agenda” of US agencies claiming to promote human rights and democracy around the world. This brings some new convergence between the nationalist worldviews behind “America First” and “India First” movements in Washington and Delhi, respectively.

One of Delhi’s problems with Washington has been India’s Russia connection, especially after the Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. If the establishment in Delhi struggled to cope with the new tensions between Russia and the West, Trump is finding a way to finesse, if not solve, the problem by reaching out to Putin and exploring pathways to peace in Ukraine.

Unlike America’s European allies who fear strategic abandonment by Trump, India has everything to gain by peace between Russia and the West. A stable security architecture in Europe will make it easier to manage its security challenges in Asia. No wonder, Modi was enthusiastic in endorsing Trump’s peace initiative in Ukraine.

While Trump’s hopes to build a new relationship with Xi Jinping will raise some concerns in Delhi, Modi and his team should be satisfied for now with the signal of continuity in US policies on Asian security and the Quad. As they expand the engagement in the Indo-Pacific developed over the last decade, Modi and Trump are also ready to intensify their collaboration in the Middle East, especially on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC).

That Delhi and Washington have good relations with Israel and the moderate Arab states should help open new avenues for strategic cooperation in the Middle East and Mediterranean.

Compared to the challenges on immigration, trade, and democracy promotion, Russia, and China, it was easy for the two leaders to signal forward movement in areas of existing convergence. These include energy, defence, technology, counter terrorism, and combating radicalism and extremism. It is only a matter of detail here on how to intensify cooperation in these areas.

(C. Raja Mohan is a contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express)