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Journalism of Courage
Bihar elections 2025 results: It can often be difficult for a four-term government to return to power, let alone with a two-thirds majority. But that’s exactly what the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) achieved under the leadership of Nitish Kumar in Bihar on Friday (November 14). Nitish’s Janata Dal (United) and the BJP headlined an alliance that seemed on course to win 202 of the Bihar Legislative Assembly’s 243 seats as of Friday evening.
The 2010 mandate was for a wave of governance reforms, from law and order to road infrastructure, that Nitish had ushered in Bihar after 15 years of administrative apathy under the RJD rule. But by 2025, the odds were stacked against the NDA. Questions around Nitish Kumar’s health and his government’s inability to deliver beyond roads, power and law and order, had begun sowing seeds of dissatisfaction and anti-incumbency.
Still, against a formidable opposition led by the RJD — which embarked upon a spirited campaign and was emboldened by its superior performance in the 2020 elections — the NDA has registered a stupendous victory. Here is what worked for the ruling alliance, and what did not work for the RJD-Congress combine.
Despite a sense of fatigue among voters with his 20-year-rule and a yearning for a younger leadership, Bihar’s voters were not necessarily angry with Nitish Kumar. In fact, there was a palpable sense of gratitude among most voters for what he had done for Bihar, even if it was laced with the subtext of further aspirations and demands. In a sense, the mandate shows voters continue to believe that despite his shortcomings, Nitish is the best bet to deliver on aspirations of the state.
The results put Nitish Kumar in the hall of fame, as one of the few chief ministers to have tenures of more than 20 years — the others being West Bengal’s Jyoti Basu and Odisha’s Naveen Patnaik. In a state deeply attached to caste identities, Kumar, coming from a caste group that is just 2.8% of Bihar’s population (the Kurmis), has shown that through governance and tailored welfare, one can sustain popularity across caste groups. The mandate reinforces Kumar’s leadership of the NDA in Bihar.
Doles ahead of polls
Following the template set by Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Maharashtra governments — which were all facing anti-incumbency — the Nitish Kumar rolled out a slew of schemes ahead of polls targeting women, elderly and the rural poor. The key schemes rolled out by Kumar ahead of polls included transfers of Rs 10,000 in the accounts of women to start an enterprise; free electricity to all upto 125 units; and enhancing the elderly pension from Rs 400 to Rs 1100.
Under the enterprise scheme for women, Bihar government transferred Rs 10,000 in the account of 1.21 crore women just over a month before the polls. The next instalment, in fact, came in the middle of the elections, on November 7. In total, the Bihar government spent over Rs 20,000 crores under these newly rolled out schemes till the polls. Measured against revenue collection, this was the biggest spending on welfare ahead of polls by any state in the country. It constituted 7.5% of Bihar’s total tax revenue and 32.5% of its own tax revenue.
On the ground, the schemes had clear traction among women, elderly and the rural poor. A significant number of voters that this newspaper spoke to said they felt obligated to vote for the NDA after becoming beneficiaries of these schemes.
Promise vs delivery
After Nitish Kumar announced a slew of schemes targeting women, the RJD released an AI cartoon showing Nitish Kumar copying from Tejashwi’s notes in an examination hall. Tejashwi even accused Nitish Kumar of stealing his ideas openly.
Notably, it was Tejashwi who first announced that if voted to power women would be given Rs 2,500 every month. It was he who mocked the meagre pension being given to the elderly, and promised to give more. He had also campaigned against rising power bills in the rural belts. These were election promises that the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) or the grand alliance was banking on to swing voters.
However, by delivering on all these, Kumar’s government dimmed the attraction of MGB’s promises and the Bihar polls became a contest of promises vs delivery. A desperate MGB then belatedly came up with the poll promise of providing a government job to every household, an announcement that even Tejashwi’s core voters from the Yadav community were not confident he could deliver on.
Then, RJD’s key ally, the Congress, tried to rally support through its Vote Adhikar Yatra. Accompanied by Tejashwi, Rahul Gandhi did a whirlwind tour of the state. But there were few takers for his allegations of “vote chori”, even among the Muslims. Ultimately, the MGB could not enthuse voters on any of the issues that it picked up ahead of the polls.
The RJD commands support of the largest collective vote bank in Bihar, the Yadavs and Muslims, who together constitute 32% of the state’s population. Yet, over the past two decades, the party has struggled to add more votes to the kitty. Conversely, Nitish Kumar, coming from the numerically small Kurmi caste, has carefully cultivated Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), non-Yadav OBCs and Mahadalits through tailored schemes and political representation. At his worst, Kumar garnered 16% votes in Bihar contesting the 2014 Lok Sabha polls on his own. These were mostly EBC and non-Yadav OBC votes.
The RJD, which once held sway over Dalits and EBCs, has lost their support over the years. Despite overtures from Tejashwi Yadav, who organised special sabhas for EBC communities, invoked EBC icon Karpoori Thakur in most of his rallies, reminded people of his father’s contribution to ushering in social justice in Bihar and allied with EBC caste parties such as VIP and IIP, failed to instill confidence among the community that his party could work for their welfare.
Partly, the blame lay with the RJD, which appeared to focus on consolidating its Yadav vote base first. Of the 75 OBC candidates that the RJD fielded, 51 were Yadavs.
The women factor
What also came to the aide of Nitish Kumar was his pioneering idea that expansion of social base did not need to be on caste lines alone, it could be on gender lines as well. It made particular sense in Bihar, where a significant number of men migrate to other states for work opportunities.
Kumar was the first leader to recognise women as a separate constituency and targeted them with welfare schemes such as free cycles for school-going girls way back in 2006. Since then, he has given reservation to women in local boy polls and rolled out several schemes for their welfare. Even the contentious prohibition imposed in 2016 was aimed at appeasing women voters. These overtures have sustained women voters’ confidence in Nitish’s leadership.
Looming shadow of ‘jungle raj’
The shadow of the 1990s and early 2000s — Bihar’s so-called ‘jungle raj’ — continued to haunt the RJD in this election, blunting Tejashwi’s attempts to rebrand the party for a new generation. Even though two decades have passed since the peak of lawlessness, kidnappings, gang wars, and unchecked bahubali dominance, memories remain vivid in rural Bihar.
In tea shops and chaupals, voters still recall travelling home before sunset, people shutting shop early out of fear, losing one’s vehicle the day it is bought, and families praying their children would return safely from school.
These recollections resurface every election season, shaping voter behaviour more than the RJD acknowledges. Many non-Yadav OBCs, EBCs, and Mahadalits say they fear a return to the past if the party takes power again.
Compounding this is the assertive Yadav mobilisation seen in RJD strongholds. While the party views it as enthusiasm, other communities perceive it as overbearing — this often leads to reverse consolidation of non-Yadav votes against the RJD.
In the end, the RJD was not just battling the NDA — it was battling its own history, one that continues to cast a long, unsettling shadow over Bihar’s politics.
