Why India has advised citizens not to travel to Israel and Iran

New Delhi’s advisory comes at a time when droves of Indian workers have headed to, or are in the process of heading to Israel. After the October 7 attacks, Israel suspended the work permits of thousands of Palestinians and Arab migrants, who previously made up the majority of the country’s workforce. This triggered a massive labour shortage — which Indians are now filling.

Escalating Iran-Israel tensions

Suspected Israeli Warplanes bombed Iran’s embassy in Damascus, Syria on April 1 in a strike that Iran said killed seven of its military advisers, three of them senior commanders, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in its Quds Force.

Notably, Zahedi was directly responsible for managing Iran’s relationships with Lebanese Hezbollah, the Syrian government and Shia militias in the country, and Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza and the West Bank.

While Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday that Israel “must be punished and it shall be”. In response, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proclaimed: “Whoever harms us, we will harm them. We are prepared to meet all of the security needs of the State of Israel, both defensively and offensively.”

A cautious West urgest restraint

The US State Department on Thursday warned Americans in Israel not to travel outside major cities, which are better protected from incoming rocket fire by the country’s Iron Dome missile defence system. The guidance noted that US government employees’ travel could be further restricted with little notice.

The French and the Russians too issued travel advisories on Friday, with the French asking its citizens “to completely refrain” from travelling to Israel, Iran, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, and the Russians telling citizens not to travel to “the Middle East, especially Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine”.

Countries have called on Iran to exercise restraint in order to avoid a wider conflict in the region. “Right now it’s very important for everyone to maintain restraint so as not to lead to a complete destabilisation of the situation in the region, which doesn’t exactly shine with stability and predictability,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

Similarly British foreign minister David Cameron, and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called on their Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amirabdollahian, to urge maximum restraint, and avoid a further escalation.

So, what will Iran do?

As the world waits for the Iranian response with bated breath, there is some precedent that one can look back at. In January 2020, when former Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani was killed, Tehran responded two weeks later by firing ballistic missiles at US forces stationed at al-Asad Air Base in western Iraq.

Recent American media reports say that some US officials believe that Iran could carry out reprisal attacks in the next 48 hours.

However, with Israel, any escalation ladder can be devastating. Experts say that Israel’s response will depend on whether Tehran goes after Israeli targets in Israel, or in the larger region.

If the target is in the region — an embassy or a consulate in West Asia — it could be seen as a proportionate response. But, if the target is inside Israeli territory, then Netanyahu will be forced to respond — and things might get worse, very quickly.