After heavy losses, Ukrainians paused to rethink strategy: Why, what next

This week, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, acknowledged that there had been a brief pause in operations some weeks ago but blamed it on a lack of equipment and munitions.

Ukrainian soldiers fire towards a Russian position on the frontline in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, on June 24. (Photo: AP)

Listen to this article

00:00

1x 1.5x 1.8x

In the first two weeks of Ukraine’s grueling counteroffensive, as much as 20% of the weaponry it sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed, according to American and European officials. The toll includes some of the formidable Western fighting machines — tanks and armored personnel carriers — the Ukrainians were counting on to beat back the Russians.

The startling rate of losses dropped to about 10% in the ensuing weeks, the officials said, preserving more of the troops and machines needed for the major offensive push that the Ukrainians say is still to come.

Some of the improvement came because Ukraine changed tactics, focusing more on wearing down the Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles than charging into enemy minefields and fire.

But that good news obscures some grim realities. The losses have also slowed because the counteroffensive itself has slowed — and even halted in places — as Ukrainian soldiers struggle against Russia’s formidable defenses. And despite the losses, the Ukrainians have so far taken just 5 of the 60 miles they hope to cover to reach the sea in the south and split the Russian forces in two.

Also in Explained | Minefields and menace: Why Ukraine’s pushback is off to a halting start

Russia had many months to prepare for the counteroffensive, and the front is littered with mines, tank traps and dug-in troops, while Russian reconnaissance drones and attack helicopters fly overhead with increasing frequency.

Given those fortifications, experts say, it is not surprising that Ukraine would sustain relatively severe losses in the early stages of the campaign.

This week, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, acknowledged that there had been a brief pause in operations some weeks ago but blamed it on a lack of equipment and munitions.

Story continues below this ad

American officials acknowledged that pause and said the Ukrainians had begun moving again, but more deliberately, more adept at navigating minefields and mindful of the casualty risks.

Military experts have long said the first 15 miles of the counteroffensive would be the hardest, as attacking troops generally need three times more power — whether in weapons, personnel or both — than defending forces.

Military analysts cautioned it was still too early to draw definitive conclusions about the counteroffensive. “It does not mean that it is doomed to fail,” said Camille Grand, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a former NATO assistant secretary-general.