Lessons from Wayanad, Himachal: As climate change intensifies, how to prepare for extreme weather events

A massive landslide in Kerala’s Wayanad, followed by a cloud burst over Shimla, Kullu, and Mandi in Himachal Pradesh resulted in more than 350 dead and hundreds missing. This situation needs our immediate attention. A discussion on both the science and policy perspectives of such events follows.

Understanding extreme climate events: Cloud burst and landslide

A cloud burst refers to a heavy downpour occurring within a small amount of time and in a small area. Cloud bursts are localised within a few square kilometres’ area, and are short-lived, often lasting only minutes.

According to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) definition, a cloud burst occurs when more than 100 mm/ hour precipitation occurs in a geographical area of 20-30 sq km. Reports said certain areas of Himachal Pradesh (Kangra, Dharamshala, Churi and Palampur) received 150 mm to 212 mm rain on August 2.

Cumulonimbus clouds are also known as thunderstorm clouds because they cause major rainfall and thunderstorm events. These gigantic clouds create a short but intense storm in the hilly regions, resulting in cloud bursts and flash floods. Over the last decade, the Himalayan region has seen some major cloud burst events such as the Kedarnath flash flood in 2013, and the Leh cloud burst in 2010.

The Vellarimala hill region in Wayanad on the other hand, received 572 mm of rain in just 48 hours (the average annual rainfall here is 3,000 mm), which caused a massive landslide that wiped out several villages. Landslides are triggered either by earthquakes or by intense rainfall events, and depend largely on the topography of an area, slope, rock and soil structure, land use, etc.

The National Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (NLSM) by the Geological Survey of India (GSI) identifies the Western Ghats, North-West Himalayas, and the North-East Himalayas as some of the most landslide prone zones in the country. The 2011 report of the Madhav Gadgil Committee, and its recommendations on the Western Ghats have been spotlighted by the devastation in Wayanad.

India’s preparedness to deal with natural disasters

Hazards turn into disasters when a large population faces the consequences. Disaster studies note that the vulnerability of a population to natural disasters depends on some socio-economic root causes such as poverty, inequality, and iniquitous power structures, as well as unsafe conditions in which people live. When a trigger event such as cloud burst or landslide meets these root causes and unsafe conditions, a disaster follows.

In its latest (sixth) Assessment Report published in 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the body of the United Nations that works to disseminate scientific knowledge about climate change caused by human activities, cautioned that we will see an increase in the frequency of extreme events as a result of climate change.

Research suggests that developing countries such as India are focused more on relief and rehabilitation rather than on disaster preparedness. Despite the presence of improved early warning systems and disaster management authorities at the district, state, and national levels, India often fails in timely disaster preparedness and disaster risk reduction.

Although the Kerala government is praised for the control and management of the Covid-19 pandemic and other public health situations over the years, it has failed to recognise the warning signs that have been flagged in earlier reports. At a time when the affected areas are reeling from the severe effects of the disaster, authorities at the Centre and in the state have been trading charges and allegations against each other.

Avoiding similar disasters: an outlook for the future

Both recent disasters (like earlier disasters that preceded them) have had huge repercussions in terms of the loss of lives, assets, and livelihoods, and the destruction of localities, villages, and towns. Settlements, roads, and bridges have been swept away, and even human bodies have been carried far away from the site of the tragedy. In order to avoid such large-scale social and economic impacts in the future, we need to take responsibility and define our path of sustainability.

* First, regulations should be strictly followed in the development planning for ecologically sensitive areas, properly taking into account environmental impact assessments, and the ecological footprints of projects.

* Second, both places where the recent disasters took place see mass tourism and a wide range of economic activities around it. ‘Ecotourism’ is suggested as an alternative; however, critics point out that even though ecotourism strives to combine conservation and development, it often ends up exacerbating the existing pressures on the environment. Alternative livelihood opportunities should be provided in fragile ecosystems, reducing the dependence on tourism.

* Third, automated weather stations should be established under each gram panchayat and urban local bodies to ensure timely evacuation and quick response to disasters.

* Fourth, climate change is no longer a distant phenomenon; its impact is knocking on our door. We should prioritise mitigation and adaptation plans at multiple levels. In the Union Budget presented last month, climate change was not among the nine priority areas identified by the Finance Ministry. The Budget allocation for the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change has seen a meagre increase of Rs 99.35 crore over the previous year (from Rs 3,231.02 crore in 2023-24 to Rs 3,330.37 crore in 2024-25). The only tick in the box for climate adaptation is the allocation of Rs 598 crore for climate-smart agriculture projects.

Sneha Biswas is an assistant professor at the School of Public Policy and Governance, Tata Institute of Social Sciences Hyderabad. She works in the areas of sustainability, disasters and vulnerability assessment.