What makes a film a hit? Not box office receipts alone

Dr Allegre Hadida,University Lecturer in Strategy at Cambridge’s Judge Business School,believes that the box-office-centered approach to a film’s success runs counter to he array of platforms and factors that feed into whether a film is ultimately ‘profitable’,a release said.

“After reviewing 135 papers written in the past 40 years on the film industry,the most immediate conclusion is that most researchers who work on motion picture performance along with the industry itself use box office receipts as a manifestation of commercial success,” Hadida said.

“This is increasingly limiting given the shelf-life of modern films,and many movies now make the majority of their revenues on ancillary markets DVD,Blu-ray,digital distribution and so on rather than in theatres.

“Viral marketing can continue to raise awareness of a film long after a major campaign has ended,people can experience cinema-like quality in their own home and stream onto a tablet while they are stuck on a train,” she added.

When it comes to film performance,Hadida says such specific and immediate focus can have huge consequences in terms of creativity in Hollywood and beyond,and the willingness of the industry to take risks.

Hadida suggests that box office receipts remain the focus because they are immediate,reliable and easy to collect. This has led to industry-wide short-sightedness,in which a film’s actual profitablity overall cost against overall revenue is neglected in favour of early theatrical revenue.

A good example of how this approach can skew the Perceived success of a film is in the use of ‘big name’ actors and directors ¿ the stars,the release added.

While they can generate plenty of early box office by having a ‘marquee’ name,this is balanced and even cancelled out by the vast fees they command so a film can be deemed a success even when most of the revenues it generates are ultimately captured by a handful of stars,leaving the film producers and financiers without a profit.

Other factors for movie success that Hadida identifies include creative merit ¿ the extent to which a film is seen to excel in cinematic terms but this is extremely difficult to define.

“Is it the opinion of critics? Which critics do you Select in your sample? Or do you look at awards such as the Oscars? All these metrics are subjective and institutionally

biased,” says Hadida.

All of these factors contribute to a feedback loop that dictates the overall ‘profitability’ of a movie stretching far beyond the box office as films are revitalised through various distribution channels,sometimes developing cult followings as a result of word of mouth and indeed ‘click of mouse’ as social media,bloggers and fan-sites become key influencers.

This can mean that films considered ‘flops’ due to low box office may still become hugely successful over time in terms of actual profit margins ¿ while films considered a ‘hit’ in the opening week may sink without a trace when it comes to longevity in the public consciousness and the associated financial reward.